Kent State Golden Flashes

Men's · Mid-American Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Roberts Wesleyan · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-15

Net rating−3.8Rank 168 of 365 · offence 134, defence 243

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-15 (12 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 4%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 13.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field5%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Louisiana Techrank 175	Away	42%	66-68	L 75-85	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Roberts Wesleyannot Division I	Home	—	—	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	at UNC Wilmingtonrank 130	Away	28%	73-80	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 5% · the next 7 days

Wed 11 Nov: at UNC WilmingtonA win: 6% · a loss: 5%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Dhani MillerG	1	36.0	15.0	6.0	5.0	−1.3	+0.5
Latif DioufF · transfer from Chattanooga	1	30.0	13.0	10.0	0.0	−3.2	−0.6
Jamal SumlinG	1	27.0	10.0	5.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.5
Christian HenryG · transfer from Fordham	1	23.0	17.0	5.0	1.0	+0.7	+1.1
Chansey Willis Jr.G · transfer from Minnesota	1	20.0	0.0	3.0	1.0	+1.2	+1.2
Quinn WoidkeG	1	16.0	5.0	2.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.8
Landon VanderwarkerF	1	16.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.3
Brenden MossG	1	15.0	5.0	2.0	1.0	−1.3	+0.2
Cameron WilliamsF · transfer from Portland	1	15.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.7
Jaymen TownsendF	1	1.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−1.2	0.0
Jakhi CallowayG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.4	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.6%rank 283	51.0%rank 271	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	16.8%rank 6	18.1%rank 276	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	35.0%rank 8	31.1%rank 104	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.6%rank 250	26.8%rank 307	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.4 expected (−0.4)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −2.7 points a game (they shot 36.4%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −3.1
Last season's net rating: +0.3
Last season's minutes returning: 15%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.8
Change since preseason: −0.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 105.2 (rank 134)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 109.0 (rank 243)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.5 (rank 54)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −4.3 (rank 149)

Mid-American Conference by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Miami (OH)	1-0	0-0	+5.1	109.2	104.0	103
2	Akron	1-0	0-0	+5.1	108.1	103.1	104
3	Toledo	0-1	0-0	−0.6	105.2	105.8	132
4	Massachusetts	1-0	0-0	−0.9	103.4	104.3	134
5	Ohio	1-0	0-0	−1.8	106.1	107.9	144
6	Kent State	0-1	0-0	−3.8	105.2	109.0	168
7	Bowling Green	1-0	0-0	−4.6	101.3	105.8	182
8	Eastern Michigan	1-0	0-0	−7.5	100.8	108.3	225
9	Central Michigan	1-0	0-0	−8.9	101.3	110.3	244
10	Ball State	0-1	0-0	−10.6	97.3	107.9	260
11	Western Michigan	0-1	0-0	−13.1	96.3	109.4	293
12	Buffalo	0-1	0-0	−13.7	97.9	111.6	299