Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Makes the tournament14%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-12
Net rating−4.1Rank 173 of 365 · offence 151, defence 219
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 21-12 (15 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 19%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 14%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field14%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Kent Staterank 169 | Home | 58% | 68-66 | W 85-75 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov | vs Arkansas Monticellonot Division I | Home | — | — | W 76-17 | |
| Mon 9 Nov8 PM ET | at LSUrank 60 | Away | 7% | 65-83 | — |
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: at LSUA win: 14% · a loss: 14%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon WengerF | 2 | 29.0 | 20.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | −1.0 | +0.5 |
| Jaylen FennerG | 2 | 25.5 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | −1.1 | +0.4 |
| Jay TylerG | 2 | 25.5 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 5.0 | −1.0 | +0.5 |
| Kyran TilleyG | 2 | 22.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Adam BoydG | 2 | 21.0 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | −0.8 | +0.4 |
| Iyran Francis Jr.F | 2 | 19.0 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 2.0 | −0.6 | +0.5 |
| Deven BatesG | 2 | 18.5 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −0.8 | +0.4 |
| Ethan BlackmonF | 2 | 17.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.5 | −0.6 | +0.4 |
| Trashaun Combs-PierceNA | 2 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | −0.4 | +0.3 |
| James SandersonG | 1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 |
| Linwood RoweF | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| Izuchukwu EmelifeF | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.9%rank 94 | 49.3%rank 84 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.0%rank 91 | 16.8%rank 358 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.1%rank 255 | 34.9%rank 358 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 27.2%rank 57 | 24.9%rank 116 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.6 expected (+0.4)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +5.8 points a game (they shot 25.0%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −5.0
- Last season's net rating
- −3.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 10%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- +0.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 104.1 (rank 151)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.2 (rank 219)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 69.6 (rank 336)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −4.0 (rank 147)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.7 | 101.3 | 105.0 | 165 |
| 2 | Arkansas State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.0 | 100.8 | 104.8 | 170 |
| 3 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 104.1 | 108.2 | 173 |
| 4 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 103.2 | 107.3 | 173 |
| 5 | Troy | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.7 | 100.6 | 106.3 | 194 |
| 6 | South Alabama | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 102.0 | 108.4 | 208 |
| 7 | Old Dominion | 2-0 | 0-0 | −7.1 | 98.7 | 105.8 | 219 |
| 8 | Southern Miss | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 99.1 | 108.6 | 248 |
| 9 | Coastal Carolina | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.9 | 99.2 | 109.2 | 253 |
| 10 | James Madison | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 100.0 | 110.7 | 258 |
| 11 | Georgia Southern | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 98.2 | 109.0 | 263 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-2 | 0-0 | −15.1 | 96.2 | 111.3 | 315 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 95.2 | 110.4 | 317 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 1-1 | 0-0 | −18.2 | 96.0 | 114.2 | 338 |