Marshall Thundering Herd

Men's · Sun Belt Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Toledo · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ET

Toledo45%55%Marshall

Projected 78-76 · Game page

Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-12

Net rating−4.1Rank 172 of 365 · offence 170, defence 185

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 20-12 (15 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 22%
Wins the conference tournament: 14%
Average seed if in the field: 13.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field15%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Buffalorank 299	Home	75%	74-65	W 92-65	Right
Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET	vs Toledorank 132	Home	55%	78-76	—
Mon 9 Nov6 PM ET	at Ohio Staterank 34	Away	3%	68-89	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 15% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs ToledoA win: 14% · a loss: 15%−1 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at Ohio StateA win: 11% · a loss: 15%−3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Emmanuel ManyuonG · transfer from Pacific	1	34.0	22.0	11.0	3.0	−0.9	+0.7
Noah OtshudiG	1	33.0	16.0	6.0	6.0	−0.1	+1.1
Bryce SlayG	1	33.0	19.0	3.0	4.0	−2.1	0.0
Fazl OshodiG · transfer from Southern	1	21.0	16.0	1.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.4
Khaman MakerC · transfer from DePaul	1	18.0	2.0	7.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.6
Colt LangdonF · transfer from NC State	1	18.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	+0.6	+0.9
Erich HardingF	1	15.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.2
Boubacar DjigoF	1	13.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.3
DeMarco JohnsonG · transfer from Elon	1	7.0	3.0	2.0	3.0	−0.7	+0.2
Luke RasmussenG · transfer from Tulane	1	7.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	−1.8	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.7%rank 57	49.7%rank 86	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.3%rank 122	17.2%rank 354	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	29.6%rank 347	29.4%rank 12	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.8%rank 297	25.3%rank 241	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +11.2 points a game (they shot 18.5%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −6.2
Last season's net rating: −2.2
Last season's minutes returning: 26%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.6
Change since preseason: +2.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 103.3 (rank 170)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 107.4 (rank 185)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.7 (rank 44)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −13.8 (rank 233)

Sun Belt Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	App State	2-0	0-0	−3.3	101.7	105.0	162
2	Arkansas State	1-0	0-0	−4.0	101.0	105.0	171
3	Marshall	1-0	0-0	−4.1	103.3	107.4	172
4	Louisiana Tech	1-0	0-0	−4.2	104.2	108.4	174
5	Troy	0-1	0-0	−5.8	100.7	106.5	194
6	South Alabama	0-1	0-0	−6.5	102.1	108.6	208
7	Old Dominion	2-0	0-0	−7.2	98.8	106.0	219
8	Southern Miss	1-0	0-0	−9.5	99.2	108.7	250
9	Coastal Carolina	0-1	0-0	−10.0	99.3	109.3	257
10	James Madison	0-1	0-0	−10.7	100.2	110.9	265
11	Georgia Southern	1-0	0-0	−10.8	98.3	109.2	270
12	Georgia State	0-1	0-0	−15.2	96.1	111.2	314
13	Louisiana	0-1	0-0	−15.3	95.2	110.6	321
14	UL Monroe	1-1	0-0	−18.3	96.1	114.4	338