Arkansas State Red Wolves

Men's · Sun Belt Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Alabama · Fri 6 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Arkansas St1%99%Alabama

Projected 65-94 · Game page

Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 22-12

Net rating−4.0Rank 170 of 365 · offence 219, defence 132

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-12 (16 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 20%
Wins the conference tournament: 15%
Average seed if in the field: 13.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field15%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Toledorank 132	Home	60%	73-70	W 71-70	Right
Fri 6 Nov7:30 PM ET	at Alabamarank 14	Away	1%	65-94	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	vs UT Martinrank 255	Home	77%	78-70	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 15% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at AlabamaA win: 13% · a loss: 15%−2 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs UT MartinA win: 15% · a loss: 15%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Tameron FergusonG	1	32.0	20.0	7.0	3.0	−1.5	+0.3
Layne TaylorG · transfer from Murray St	1	30.0	13.0	4.0	4.0	+0.1	+1.2
Amadou DoumbiaF · transfer from NC A&T	1	25.0	5.0	9.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.4
Royal Blue SmithG	1	23.0	5.0	5.0	4.0	−0.7	+0.6
Jordan PykeG · transfer from Incarnate Word	1	22.0	11.0	9.0	2.0	+0.6	+1.1
Delang MuonF	1	19.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	−1.4	+0.2
Chaz WatsonG	1	16.0	1.0	4.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.2
Aaron McGeeG	1	16.0	11.0	0.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.2
Aliou MaigaF	1	14.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	−1.2	+0.2
Grayson BennettF	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	48.2%rank 347	50.1%rank 125	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.1%rank 81	18.6%rank 131	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.4%rank 232	33.0%rank 306	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	22.6%rank 347	22.7%rank 20	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.6 expected (+0.4)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +8.2 points a game (they shot 22.2%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −3.0
Last season's net rating: +1.4
Last season's minutes returning: 5%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.0
Change since preseason: −1.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 101.0 (rank 219)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 105.1 (rank 132)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.4 (rank 12)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −0.6 (rank 118)

Sun Belt Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	App State	2-0	0-0	−3.3	101.8	105.1	162
2	Arkansas State	1-0	0-0	−4.0	101.0	105.1	170
3	Marshall	1-0	0-0	−4.1	103.4	107.5	172
4	Louisiana Tech	1-0	0-0	−4.2	104.2	108.5	174
5	Troy	0-1	0-0	−5.8	100.8	106.6	195
6	South Alabama	0-1	0-0	−6.5	102.2	108.7	209
7	Old Dominion	2-0	0-0	−7.2	98.9	106.0	220
8	Southern Miss	1-0	0-0	−9.5	99.3	108.8	250
9	Coastal Carolina	0-1	0-0	−10.0	99.4	109.4	257
10	James Madison	0-1	0-0	−10.7	100.2	110.9	265
11	Georgia Southern	1-0	0-0	−10.8	98.4	109.2	270
12	Georgia State	0-1	0-0	−15.2	96.1	111.3	315
13	Louisiana	0-1	0-0	−15.3	95.3	110.7	321
14	UL Monroe	1-1	0-0	−18.3	96.2	114.5	337