UT Martin Skyhawks
Makes the tournament20%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-14
Net rating−9.6Rank 255 of 365 · offence 248, defence 262
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-14 (13 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 27%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 20%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field20%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Tulanerank 169 | Away | 24% | 62-70 | L 98-100 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET | at IU Indianapolisrank 297 | Away | 46% | 76-77 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | at Arkansas Staterank 171 | Away | 23% | 70-78 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at IU IndianapolisA win: 21% · a loss: 20%+1 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at Arkansas StateA win: 21% · a loss: 20%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sasha SavkovG | 1 | 40.0 | 20.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Kaan OnatG | 1 | 40.0 | 21.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Arminas VilkasF | 1 | 39.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Nikas StuknysG | 1 | 29.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Davi RemagenG · transfer from Georgia Tech | 1 | 25.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Filip PetkovskiG | 1 | 25.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −2.9 | −0.4 |
| Vladimir KhryapaF | 1 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Armandas BanceviciusF | 1 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Nikola JanicicG | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
| Ousseynou SambeF | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 53.0%rank 12 | 49.7%rank 89 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.1%rank 88 | 17.5%rank 334 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.9%rank 121 | 30.3%rank 47 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 26.4%rank 66 | 28.7%rank 357 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −0.6 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.3 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.9
- Last season's net rating
- −3.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 18%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- +0.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.1 (rank 248)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.7 (rank 262)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.0 (rank 319)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −3.9 (rank 145)
Ohio Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southeast Missouri State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −7.9 | 99.7 | 107.5 | 231 |
| 2 | UT Martin | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 100.1 | 109.7 | 255 |
| 3 | SIU Edwardsville | 2-0 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 97.4 | 108.2 | 269 |
| 4 | Tennessee State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.0 | 96.4 | 109.4 | 292 |
| 5 | Morehead State | 1-1 | 0-0 | −13.9 | 98.6 | 112.5 | 302 |
| 6 | Lindenwood | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.8 | 95.2 | 111.0 | 326 |
| 7 | Eastern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.0 | 94.9 | 111.0 | 329 |
| 8 | Southern Indiana | 1-1 | 0-0 | −17.2 | 92.2 | 109.5 | 332 |
| 9 | Western Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.1 | 93.0 | 115.0 | 356 |