Morehead State Eagles
Next: vs Virginia Lynchburg · Thu 5 Nov, 5:15 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18
Net rating−13.9Rank 302 of 365 · offence 278, defence 321
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-18 (11 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 9%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 9%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field9%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Western Kentuckyrank 133 | Away | 18% | 63-74 | L 58-83 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov5:15 PM ET | vs Virginia Lynchburgnot Division I | Home | — | — | Live | |
| Sat 7 Nov12 PM ET | at Louisvillerank 18 | Away | 0% | 60-92 | — |
Rooting guide
- No games this week
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DawsonG | 1 | 30.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −3.5 | −0.8 |
| Vince Dawson IIIG | 1 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −0.8 |
| Clayton ParkerF | 1 | 22.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −4.6 | −1.0 |
| Dalman AlexanderF | 1 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Justin PayneG | 1 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Tayvion TangioraF | 1 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Izaiah DayG | 1 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Davion CunninghamG | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Jaden PriesterF | 1 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Kyrell ShawG | 1 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Jarvis WrightG | 1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.8 | 0.0 |
| Jace WinklemanG | 1 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −4.2 | −0.1 |
| Kenyata CarbonG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.9%rank 255 | 49.5%rank 74 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.2%rank 103 | 17.4%rank 346 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.8%rank 284 | 31.3%rank 128 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.2%rank 281 | 23.4%rank 47 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −2.9 points a game (they shot 35.7%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.7 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −11.9
- Last season's net rating
- −10.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 39%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −2.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.6 (rank 278)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 112.5 (rank 321)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.4 (rank 295)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −0.6 (rank 116)
Ohio Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southeast Missouri State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −7.9 | 99.6 | 107.5 | 231 |
| 2 | UT Martin | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 100.1 | 109.7 | 255 |
| 3 | SIU Edwardsville | 2-0 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 97.3 | 108.2 | 269 |
| 4 | Tennessee State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.0 | 96.4 | 109.3 | 292 |
| 5 | Morehead State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.9 | 98.6 | 112.5 | 302 |
| 6 | Lindenwood | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.8 | 95.1 | 110.9 | 326 |
| 7 | Eastern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.9 | 95.2 | 111.2 | 328 |
| 8 | Southern Indiana | 1-1 | 0-0 | −17.2 | 92.2 | 109.4 | 332 |
| 9 | Western Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.1 | 92.9 | 115.0 | 356 |