Western Illinois Leathernecks
Next: vs Hou Christian · Sat 7 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 71-73 · Game page
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-22
Net rating−22.1Rank 356 of 365 · offence 352, defence 349
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 11-22 (7 to 15 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 4-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Valparaisorank 126 | Away | 7% | 57-76 | L 58-80 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov7 PM ET | vs Houston Christianrank 304 | Home | 44% | 71-73 | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET | vs Simpson (IA)not Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET | vs Cal State Bakersfieldrank 283 | Home | 38% | 74-77 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Houston ChristianA win: <1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: vs Cal State BakersfieldA win: 0% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack RileyF | 1 | 36.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.9 | −1.2 |
| Daivion TraylorF | 1 | 28.0 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −3.8 | −0.8 |
| Makai KvammeG | 1 | 26.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −7.0 | −2.3 |
| Hunter VaughnG | 1 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | −3.8 | −0.8 |
| Danny StephensF | 1 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −7.2 | −1.7 |
| Matthieu BiembongoF | 1 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −3.5 | −0.4 |
| Davee FlowersG | 1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.4 | −0.3 |
| Jordan CainG | 1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −3.4 | −0.2 |
| Shay StephensG | 1 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.3 | −0.2 |
| Tayelor MooreG | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.3 | −0.2 |
| Isaiah DavisF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.1 | −0.1 |
| Stefan HigginsF | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.0%rank 241 | 49.9%rank 108 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.9%rank 265 | 18.1%rank 287 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.9%rank 281 | 31.4%rank 132 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 26.0%rank 84 | 29.2%rank 361 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +3.5 points a game (they shot 25.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −20.7
- Last season's net rating
- −28.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 17%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −1.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 93.0 (rank 352)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 115.0 (rank 349)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.1 (rank 210)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +0.1 (rank 115)
Ohio Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southeast Missouri State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −7.9 | 99.7 | 107.5 | 231 |
| 2 | UT Martin | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 100.1 | 109.7 | 255 |
| 3 | SIU Edwardsville | 2-0 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 97.4 | 108.2 | 269 |
| 4 | Tennessee State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.0 | 96.4 | 109.4 | 292 |
| 5 | Morehead State | 1-1 | 0-0 | −13.9 | 98.6 | 112.5 | 302 |
| 6 | Lindenwood | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.8 | 95.2 | 111.0 | 326 |
| 7 | Eastern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.0 | 94.9 | 111.0 | 329 |
| 8 | Southern Indiana | 1-1 | 0-0 | −17.2 | 92.2 | 109.5 | 332 |
| 9 | Western Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.1 | 93.0 | 115.0 | 356 |