Valparaiso Beacons

Men's · Missouri Valley Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Purdue · Fri 6 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

Valparaiso4%96%Purdue

Projected 63-84 · Game page

Makes the tournament6%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-14

Net rating+0.1Rank 125 of 365 · offence 145, defence 126

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-14 (13 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 5%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 12.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field6%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Western Illinoisrank 356	Home	93%	76-57	W 80-58	Right
Fri 6 Nov6:30 PM ET	at Purduerank 17	Away	4%	63-84	—
Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET	at South Dakota Staterank 163	Away	45%	71-73	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 6% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at PurdueA win: 9% · a loss: 6%+3 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at South Dakota StateA win: 7% · a loss: 6%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Sader ServilusG	1	27.0	5.0	6.0	1.0	−0.1	+0.9
Carter HopoiF	1	25.0	8.0	8.0	3.0	−0.1	+0.9
Rakim ChaneyG	1	24.0	10.0	3.0	1.0	+1.0	+1.3
JT PettigrewF	1	24.0	18.0	2.0	1.0	+1.7	+1.6
Rajan RobertsG	1	22.0	13.0	1.0	2.0	−1.1	+0.4
Terron GarrettG	1	20.0	8.0	1.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.3
Justus McNairG	1	19.0	3.0	3.0	1.0	+0.7	+0.9
Bruno AlocenG · transfer from Indiana St	1	18.0	5.0	4.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.4
Kobe WalkerF	1	8.0	8.0	2.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.2
Kai YuC · transfer from Bradley	1	7.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	−0.1	+0.2
Hudson ScrogginsF	1	4.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.1
Nick LombardiG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.1	0.0
Camden WebsterG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.8	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.9%rank 257	50.1%rank 122	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.1%rank 78	18.9%rank 97	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.4%rank 236	30.9%rank 83	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	29.2%rank 5	26.0%rank 280	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +1.6 points a game (they shot 28.6%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −1.3
Last season's net rating: +0.1
Last season's minutes returning: 47%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.2
Change since preseason: +1.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 104.4 (rank 145)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 104.3 (rank 126)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.4 (rank 295)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −22.1 (rank 281)

Missouri Valley Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Murray State	1-0	0-0	+6.3	107.4	101.0	98
2	UIC	1-0	0-0	+5.2	107.4	102.3	101
3	Northern Iowa	1-0	0-0	+3.8	105.9	102.1	110
4	Belmont	1-0	0-0	+3.6	106.0	102.3	111
5	Drake	1-0	0-0	+3.1	107.1	104.0	114
6	Illinois State	0-1	0-0	+1.1	106.3	105.2	123
7	Valparaiso	1-0	0-0	+0.1	104.4	104.3	125
8	Bradley	1-0	0-0	−0.5	104.6	105.1	129
9	Southern Illinois	1-0	0-0	−1.3	102.9	104.2	140
10	Indiana State	0-1	0-0	−7.3	101.8	109.1	222
11	Evansville	1-0	0-0	−8.5	99.6	108.0	238