Drake Bulldogs
Makes the tournament14%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-13
Net rating+3.1Rank 115 of 365 · offence 103, defence 118
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-13 (14 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 14%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 11%
- Average seed if in the field
- 11.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field14%
- Round of 322%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs SouthernA win: 14% · a loss: 14%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli ShetlarG | 1 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +1.1 | +1.2 |
| Dothan IjadimbolaG | 1 | 21.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | −0.2 | +0.7 |
| Owen LarsonG | 1 | 21.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | +0.1 | +0.8 |
| Bryson BahlG | 1 | 21.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −0.2 | +0.7 |
| Dre KindellG · transfer from Wichita St | 1 | 19.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | +2.9 | +1.7 |
| Jon CarrollF · transfer from Morehead St | 1 | 18.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +1.9 | +1.3 |
| Griffen GoodbaryF | 1 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +0.7 | +0.8 |
| Justin BurnsF | 1 | 17.0 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 |
| LJ RushG | 1 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 |
| Andrew AliaG | 1 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.3 | +0.6 |
| Mason MatulisG | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Gio QuilesG | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 155 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 156 | 18.6%rank 134 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 128 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 131 | 25.2%rank 153 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +3.1
- Last season's net rating
- −2.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 46%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.1
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 107.1 (rank 103)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 104.1 (rank 118)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.4 (rank 181)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Missouri Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.3 | 107.4 | 101.0 | 97 |
| 2 | UIC | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.2 | 107.5 | 102.3 | 102 |
| 3 | Northern Iowa | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.8 | 105.9 | 102.1 | 111 |
| 4 | Belmont | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.6 | 106.0 | 102.4 | 112 |
| 5 | Drake | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.1 | 107.1 | 104.1 | 115 |
| 6 | Illinois State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.1 | 106.4 | 105.2 | 123 |
| 7 | Valparaiso | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 104.4 | 104.3 | 126 |
| 8 | Bradley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.5 | 104.7 | 105.1 | 129 |
| 9 | Southern Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.3 | 103.0 | 104.2 | 140 |
| 10 | Indiana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.4 | 101.8 | 109.1 | 223 |
| 11 | Evansville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.5 | 99.6 | 108.1 | 238 |