Illinois State Redbirds
Next: vs Central State · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-15
Net rating+1.1Rank 123 of 365 · offence 110, defence 139
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 19-15 (14 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 7%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 7%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field8%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Saint Mary'srank 55 | Away | 15% | 60-73 | L 85-90 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET | vs Central Statenot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov8:30 PM ET | at Purduerank 17 | Away | 5% | 65-85 | — |
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: at PurdueA win: 11% · a loss: 8%+3 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny KinzigerG | 1 | 42.0 | 30.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 | +2.3 |
| Demarion BurchG · transfer from Bradley | 1 | 39.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.2 | +0.6 |
| Malik Messina-MooreG · transfer from Xavier | 1 | 32.0 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | +0.5 | +1.4 |
| Mason KlaboG | 1 | 32.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | +0.9 | +1.7 |
| Noah ClevelandF | 1 | 25.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Chase WalkerF | 1 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | +4.6 | +2.1 |
| Deng GarangG · transfer from Le Moyne | 1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Nick AllenF | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −1.0 | +0.2 |
| Zaxton KingG · transfer from Missouri St | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 |
| Louie Semona IIIF · transfer from Western KY | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.2 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 52.9%rank 13 | 49.0%rank 51 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.1%rank 304 | 18.4%rank 228 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 209 | 33.1%rank 315 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 26.2%rank 77 | 25.3%rank 236 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.5 points a game (they shot 23.5%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +1.0
- Last season's net rating
- +9.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 34%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.5
- Change since preseason
- +0.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 106.3 (rank 110)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 105.2 (rank 139)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.9 (rank 240)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +14.2 (rank 52)
Missouri Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.3 | 107.4 | 101.0 | 98 |
| 2 | UIC | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.2 | 107.4 | 102.3 | 101 |
| 3 | Northern Iowa | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.8 | 105.9 | 102.1 | 110 |
| 4 | Belmont | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.6 | 106.0 | 102.3 | 111 |
| 5 | Drake | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.1 | 107.1 | 104.0 | 114 |
| 6 | Illinois State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.1 | 106.3 | 105.2 | 123 |
| 7 | Valparaiso | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 104.4 | 104.3 | 125 |
| 8 | Bradley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.5 | 104.6 | 105.1 | 129 |
| 9 | Southern Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.3 | 102.9 | 104.2 | 140 |
| 10 | Indiana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.3 | 101.8 | 109.1 | 222 |
| 11 | Evansville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.5 | 99.6 | 108.0 | 238 |