Murray State Racers
Next: vs N'Western St · Sat 7 Nov, 8 PM ETProjected 83-67 · Game page
Makes the tournament27%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 23-10
Net rating+6.3Rank 98 of 365 · offence 101, defence 87
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 23-10 (18 to 29 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 31%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 21%
- Average seed if in the field
- 11.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field27%
- Round of 324%
- Sweet 161%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four<1%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Tennessee Staterank 292 | Neutral | 77% | 76-67 | W 94-64 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov8 PM ET | vs Northwestern Staterank 239 | Home | 92% | 83-67 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | vs Alcorn Staterank 359 | Home | 99% | 90-62 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Northwestern StateA win: 27% · a loss: 26%+2 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: vs Alcorn StateA win: 27% · a loss: 26%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman DomonG | 1 | 28.0 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | +3.8 | +3.0 |
| Brigham RogersF · transfer from Belmont | 1 | 26.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | +3.3 | +2.6 |
| Talis SoulhacG | 1 | 22.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −0.7 | +0.6 |
| Brayden ShorterG | 1 | 21.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +0.8 |
| Kaden MagwoodG · transfer from Auburn | 1 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 | +1.3 |
| Christian JonesG · transfer from G Washington | 1 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | +2.2 | +1.4 |
| Lachlan CrateG | 1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.4 |
| Ben ShtolzbergG | 1 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.4 |
| Mathis CourbonG | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Jonas BoulefaaF | 1 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.2 |
| Shon TupuolaF · transfer from Valparaiso | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +2.5 | +0.6 |
| Pavle NikolicF | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 |
| Navon ShabazzNA | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 |
| Dillon ButlerG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.4%rank 70 | 48.1%rank 14 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.9%rank 260 | 20.8%rank 2 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.4%rank 229 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 27.5%rank 33 | 28.4%rank 352 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +6.3 points a game (they shot 22.7%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +2.4
- Last season's net rating
- +4.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 28%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +3.1
- Change since preseason
- +3.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 107.4 (rank 101)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 101.0 (rank 87)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.0 (rank 5)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −13.0 (rank 227)
Missouri Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.3 | 107.4 | 101.0 | 98 |
| 2 | UIC | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.2 | 107.4 | 102.3 | 101 |
| 3 | Northern Iowa | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.8 | 105.9 | 102.1 | 110 |
| 4 | Belmont | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.6 | 106.0 | 102.3 | 111 |
| 5 | Drake | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.1 | 107.1 | 104.0 | 114 |
| 6 | Illinois State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.1 | 106.3 | 105.2 | 123 |
| 7 | Valparaiso | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 104.4 | 104.3 | 125 |
| 8 | Bradley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.5 | 104.6 | 105.1 | 129 |
| 9 | Southern Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.3 | 102.9 | 104.2 | 140 |
| 10 | Indiana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.3 | 101.8 | 109.1 | 222 |
| 11 | Evansville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.5 | 99.6 | 108.0 | 238 |