Alcorn State Braves
Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 8-25
Net rating−22.5Rank 359 of 365 · offence 358, defence 348
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 8-25 (4 to 13 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-11
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field2%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Ole Missrank 32 | Away | 0% | 51-84 | L 58-99 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | vs Howardrank 210 | Home | 24% | 70-78 | Live | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | at Murray Staterank 97 | Away | 1% | 62-90 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs HowardA win: 2% · a loss: 2%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at Murray StateA win: 1% · a loss: 2%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahseem FeltonG · transfer from Seton Hall | 1 | 24.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.4 | −0.6 |
| Calvin Sirmans IIIG | 1 | 24.0 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | −4.7 | −1.1 |
| Bobby CannonF | 1 | 24.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −4.7 | −1.1 |
| Saxby SunderlandG | 1 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −4.6 | −0.9 |
| Josh PowellG | 1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −4.5 | −0.7 |
| Braylhan ThomasG · transfer from Winthrop | 1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −4.3 | −0.6 |
| Adam TokpahC | 1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.5 | −0.6 |
| Christian RichardsonC · transfer from Omaha | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.8 | −0.4 |
| Jayan WalkerF · transfer from Indiana St | 1 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −4.9 | −0.6 |
| Jaylin CraineG | 1 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −4.4 | −0.5 |
| Nigel ThomasF | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −4.4 | −0.4 |
| Ma'Kye TaylorF · transfer from UAlbany | 1 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −7.5 | −0.9 |
| Ethan GriffinG | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −4.3 | −0.3 |
| Cameron ZeiglerG | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.2 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.5%rank 122 | 51.6%rank 303 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 20.9%rank 365 | 18.3%rank 240 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.5%rank 87 | 32.5%rank 281 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.8%rank 240 | 26.8%rank 304 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −0.6 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −19.8
- Last season's net rating
- −21.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 0%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.5
- Change since preseason
- −2.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 92.2 (rank 358)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 114.7 (rank 348)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.8 (rank 120)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +19.6 (rank 30)
Southwestern Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.9 | 96.5 | 109.4 | 291 |
| 2 | Texas Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.5 | 98.5 | 113.0 | 309 |
| 3 | Alabama State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.7 | 94.9 | 110.6 | 324 |
| 4 | Jackson State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.9 | 93.8 | 109.7 | 327 |
| 5 | Bethune-Cookman | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.0 | 96.1 | 112.1 | 329 |
| 6 | Grambling | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.6 | 97.6 | 115.2 | 334 |
| 7 | Alabama A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.4 | 95.2 | 113.6 | 340 |
| 8 | Prairie View A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 94.5 | 114.2 | 346 |
| 9 | Florida A&M | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.0 | 94.5 | 116.5 | 355 |
| 10 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.2 | 94.2 | 116.3 | 357 |
| 11 | Alcorn State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.5 | 92.2 | 114.7 | 359 |
| 12 | Mississippi Valley State | 0-0 | 0-0 | −29.1 | 89.1 | 118.1 | 365 |