Alabama State Hornets
Next: vs Georgia Gwinnett · Mon 9 Nov, 6 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament12%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-18
Net rating−15.8Rank 324 of 365 · offence 338, defence 287
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-18 (12 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 16%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 12%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field12%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Texas A&Mrank 37 | Away | 1% | 61-93 | L 66-97 | Right |
| Mon 9 Nov6 PM ET | vs Georgia Gwinnettnot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET | vs Oklahoma Panhandlenot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- No games this week
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul McMillan IVG | 1 | 37.0 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −3.1 | −0.7 |
| Mike JamesG · transfer from Miss Valley St | 1 | 35.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −4.1 | −1.3 |
| Damarion BondsG | 1 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Isaiah BarganierF · transfer from Texas St | 1 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −4.3 | −0.8 |
| Joseph ScottF · transfer from Abilene Chrstn | 1 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Marquintez DixonF | 1 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Terrance HamptonF | 1 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.6 | −0.2 |
| Noah BennyG | 1 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| JaSteven WalkerF | 1 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −4.6 | −0.4 |
| Tre PowellG | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Jackson RogersG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Hasting StewartG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.2%rank 303 | 50.3%rank 143 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 20.2%rank 349 | 18.1%rank 292 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 33.1%rank 49 | 31.3%rank 126 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.0%rank 220 | 28.3%rank 351 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −1.7 points a game (they shot 34.8%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +4.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −16.2
- Last season's net rating
- −15.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 5%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −7.7
- Change since preseason
- +0.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 94.9 (rank 338)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 110.6 (rank 287)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.2 (rank 21)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +16.9 (rank 36)
Southwestern Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.9 | 96.5 | 109.4 | 291 |
| 2 | Texas Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.5 | 98.5 | 113.0 | 309 |
| 3 | Alabama State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.8 | 94.9 | 110.6 | 324 |
| 4 | Jackson State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.9 | 93.8 | 109.7 | 327 |
| 5 | Bethune-Cookman | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.0 | 96.0 | 112.1 | 329 |
| 6 | Grambling | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.6 | 97.6 | 115.1 | 334 |
| 7 | Alabama A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.4 | 95.2 | 113.6 | 339 |
| 8 | Prairie View A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 94.5 | 114.2 | 345 |
| 9 | Florida A&M | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.0 | 94.5 | 116.5 | 355 |
| 10 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.2 | 94.1 | 116.3 | 357 |
| 11 | Alcorn State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.5 | 92.2 | 114.7 | 359 |
| 12 | Mississippi Valley State | 0-0 | 0-0 | −29.1 | 89.0 | 118.1 | 365 |