Tennessee State Tigers
Next: vs East West · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-14
Net rating−13.0Rank 292 of 365 · offence 311, defence 250
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-14 (10 to 20 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 12%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 11%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field11%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Murray Staterank 98 | Neutral | 23% | 67-76 | L 64-94 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET | vs East Westnot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov8 PM ET | vs Fisknot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- No games this week
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty-Laur JohnsonG · transfer from San Diego | 1 | 32.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | −0.7 | +0.8 |
| Deondrea LindseyF | 1 | 30.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.5 |
| Jayden JonesG | 1 | 24.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −4.3 | −1.0 |
| Aaron BradshawF · transfer from Memphis | 1 | 23.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.3 | +0.7 |
| Kavien JonesF | 1 | 23.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −3.6 | −0.7 |
| Arterio MorrisG · transfer from Bethune | 1 | 21.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | −2.6 | −0.2 |
| Christian AlstonG · transfer from Abilene Chrstn | 1 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.1 | −0.3 |
| Presley PattersonG · transfer from Rice | 1 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.1 | −0.5 |
| Maddux BodenhamerG | 1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | 0.0 |
| Isaiah StewartG · transfer from N Illinois | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.9 | −0.2 |
| Daniel Vieira-TuckG | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | 0.0 |
| Ajayi SimmonsG | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 48.1%rank 354 | 51.4%rank 298 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 20.8%rank 364 | 18.9%rank 102 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 127 | 31.4%rank 138 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 28.4%rank 14 | 27.5%rank 333 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.4 points a game (they shot 30.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −4.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.0
- Last season's net rating
- −1.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 7%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.9
- Change since preseason
- −3.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 96.4 (rank 311)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.3 (rank 250)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.3 (rank 17)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +6.3 (rank 96)
Ohio Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southeast Missouri State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −7.9 | 99.6 | 107.5 | 231 |
| 2 | UT Martin | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 100.1 | 109.7 | 255 |
| 3 | SIU Edwardsville | 2-0 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 97.3 | 108.2 | 269 |
| 4 | Tennessee State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.0 | 96.4 | 109.3 | 292 |
| 5 | Morehead State | 1-1 | 0-0 | −13.9 | 98.6 | 112.5 | 302 |
| 6 | Lindenwood | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.8 | 95.1 | 110.9 | 326 |
| 7 | Eastern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.9 | 95.2 | 111.2 | 328 |
| 8 | Southern Indiana | 1-1 | 0-0 | −17.2 | 92.2 | 109.4 | 332 |
| 9 | Western Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.1 | 92.9 | 115.0 | 356 |