Tulane Green Wave
Next: vs Jackson St · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ETProjected 82-68 · Game page
Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-16
Net rating−3.8Rank 169 of 365 · offence 139, defence 228
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-16 (12 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field2%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs UT Martinrank 255 | Home | 76% | 70-62 | W 100-98 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Jackson Staterank 327 | Home | 88% | 82-68 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Nichollsrank 237 | Home | 74% | 80-72 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs Jackson StateA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: vs NichollsA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krystian LewisG · transfer from UL Monroe | 1 | 43.0 | 40.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | −1.7 | +0.3 |
| Tyler RinggoldF | 1 | 42.0 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −0.3 | +1.3 |
| KJ GreeneG | 1 | 42.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| TJ NadeauG · transfer from Detroit Mercy | 1 | 29.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +0.9 | +1.5 |
| Joah ChappelleF · transfer from Georgia St | 1 | 29.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.6 |
| Carson SchwiegerF · transfer from Queens | 1 | 26.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.7 |
| Ryan BlountG | 1 | 21.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −0.7 | +0.5 |
| Josiah MooreG | 1 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.5 |
| Noah MisterG | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.7%rank 276 | 53.0%rank 352 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.5%rank 30 | 18.1%rank 278 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.3%rank 316 | 31.8%rank 245 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 28.7%rank 11 | 26.4%rank 296 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −14.2 points a game (they shot 44.7%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −3.6
- Last season's net rating
- −4.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 25%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −6.2
- Change since preseason
- −0.2
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 104.7 (rank 139)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.6 (rank 228)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.2 (rank 208)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −9.6 (rank 201)
American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wichita State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +9.6 | 108.8 | 99.2 | 80 |
| 2 | Memphis | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.7 | 109.6 | 100.9 | 85 |
| 3 | South Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.6 | 108.6 | 103.0 | 100 |
| 4 | North Texas | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.9 | 104.0 | 101.1 | 115 |
| 5 | Florida Atlantic | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.1 | 103.6 | 103.7 | 127 |
| 6 | Temple | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.1 | 103.5 | 104.5 | 136 |
| 7 | Tulsa | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 104.5 | 106.4 | 145 |
| 8 | Charlotte | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.5 | 105.2 | 107.7 | 149 |
| 9 | UAB | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.5 | 106.2 | 109.7 | 164 |
| 10 | Tulane | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 104.7 | 108.6 | 169 |
| 11 | Rice | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.2 | 102.7 | 107.8 | 188 |
| 12 | East Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.0 | 100.9 | 107.9 | 216 |
| 13 | UTSA | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 98.0 | 113.2 | 315 |