North Texas Mean Green
Next: vs Santa Clara · Wed 11 Nov, 8 PM ETProjected 75-76 · Game page
Makes the tournament20%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 25-10
Net rating+6.2Rank 98 of 365 · offence 108, defence 82
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 25-10 (20 to 29 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 21%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 16%
- Average seed if in the field
- 11.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field20%
- Round of 323%
- Sweet 161%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four<1%
- Title game<1%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Southwestern Christian Unot Division I | Home | — | — | W 122-50 | |
| Thu 5 Nov | vs McNeeserank 99 | Home | 49% | 73-73 | W 77-67 | Wrong |
| Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET | vs Santa Clararank 64 | Home | 48% | 75-76 | — |
Rooting guide
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Santa ClaraA win: 21% · a loss: 18%+3 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Je'Shawn StevensonG | 2 | 28.5 | 22.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | +3.7 | +2.9 |
| Cole FranklinG | 2 | 25.5 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | +1.3 | +1.5 |
| Cash ChavisG · transfer from UT Arlington | 2 | 23.5 | 14.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Aeneas AlexanderG | 2 | 21.5 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.8 |
| Ousmane NdourF | 2 | 21.5 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.7 |
| Reece RobinsonF | 2 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | +1.5 | +1.2 |
| Amar AmkouG · transfer from FAU | 2 | 18.0 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 0.5 | +2.2 | +1.3 |
| Filip KalajzicF | 2 | 12.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | +0.2 | +0.5 |
| Braylon BarnesG | 2 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | +0.3 | +0.5 |
| Marcus ZeleeG | 1 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | +0.4 | +0.8 |
| TJ CrumbleF | 2 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +0.5 | +0.3 |
| Ethan BilyeuF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +0.8 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.9%rank 249 | 50.0%rank 118 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.9%rank 265 | 19.0%rank 75 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.8%rank 68 | 33.0%rank 304 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.1%rank 215 | 26.9%rank 313 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −2.9 points a game (they shot 35.7%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +2.9
- Last season's net rating
- +2.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 43%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.6
- Change since preseason
- +3.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 106.7 (rank 108)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 100.5 (rank 82)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.2 (rank 307)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +5.7 (rank 96)
American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wichita State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +9.6 | 108.8 | 99.3 | 80 |
| 2 | Memphis | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.7 | 109.6 | 100.9 | 85 |
| 3 | North Texas | 2-0 | 0-0 | +6.2 | 106.7 | 100.5 | 98 |
| 4 | South Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.6 | 108.6 | 103.0 | 101 |
| 5 | Florida Atlantic | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.1 | 103.6 | 103.8 | 127 |
| 6 | Temple | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.1 | 103.5 | 104.6 | 136 |
| 7 | Tulsa | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 104.5 | 106.4 | 146 |
| 8 | Charlotte | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.5 | 105.2 | 107.7 | 149 |
| 9 | Tulane | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.9 | 104.8 | 108.6 | 169 |
| 10 | UAB | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 105.7 | 109.8 | 170 |
| 11 | Rice | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.2 | 102.7 | 107.9 | 188 |
| 12 | East Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.0 | 100.9 | 107.9 | 216 |
| 13 | UTSA | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 98.1 | 113.2 | 315 |