East Carolina Pirates
Next: vs UNC Wilmington · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ETProjected 74-74 · Game page
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-16
Net rating−7.0Rank 216 of 365 · offence 224, defence 201
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-16 (10 to 21 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-11
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs South Carolina Upstaterank 308 | Home | 80% | 73-63 | W 83-70 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | vs UNC Wilmingtonrank 130 | Home | 47% | 74-74 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov4 PM ET | vs North Carolina A&Trank 287 | Home | 77% | 80-71 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs UNC WilmingtonA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs North Carolina A&TA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cian MedleyG · transfer from Kent State | 1 | 35.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Kaseem WatsonF · transfer from UTEP | 1 | 33.0 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Kaden CooperF · transfer from Louisiana Tech | 1 | 30.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | +0.9 | +1.6 |
| Brycen BlaineG · transfer from Charleston So | 1 | 28.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| Trevor BestG · transfer from Arizona St | 1 | 27.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Maxim KlitschkoC | 1 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Eli DeLaurierC | 1 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −0.5 |
| Jordyn BuchananF | 1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Matthew HintonC | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Ashton McCulloughG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.8%rank 111 | 52.0%rank 324 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.5%rank 146 | 19.7%rank 24 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.6%rank 217 | 32.5%rank 280 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.4%rank 117 | 22.9%rank 30 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −1.6 points a game (they shot 35.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −6.6
- Last season's net rating
- −7.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 7%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.1
- Change since preseason
- −0.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.9 (rank 224)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.9 (rank 201)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.8 (rank 119)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −14.3 (rank 245)
American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wichita State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +9.6 | 108.8 | 99.3 | 80 |
| 2 | Memphis | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.7 | 109.6 | 100.9 | 85 |
| 3 | North Texas | 2-0 | 0-0 | +6.2 | 106.7 | 100.5 | 98 |
| 4 | South Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.6 | 108.6 | 103.0 | 101 |
| 5 | Florida Atlantic | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.1 | 103.6 | 103.8 | 127 |
| 6 | Temple | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.1 | 103.5 | 104.6 | 136 |
| 7 | Tulsa | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 104.5 | 106.4 | 146 |
| 8 | Charlotte | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.5 | 105.2 | 107.7 | 149 |
| 9 | Tulane | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.9 | 104.8 | 108.6 | 169 |
| 10 | UAB | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 105.7 | 109.8 | 170 |
| 11 | Rice | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.2 | 102.7 | 107.9 | 188 |
| 12 | East Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.0 | 100.9 | 107.9 | 216 |
| 13 | UTSA | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 98.1 | 113.2 | 315 |