UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Next: at East Carolina · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ETProjected 74-74 · Game page
Makes the tournament19%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 23-11
Net rating−0.5Rank 130 of 365 · offence 139, defence 142
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 23-11 (16 to 29 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 26%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 18%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field19%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Mount Olivenot Division I | Home | — | — | W 101-65 | |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | at East Carolinarank 217 | Away | 53% | 74-74 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | vs Kent Staterank 169 | Home | 71% | 80-73 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at East CarolinaA win: 19% · a loss: 19%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Kent StateA win: 19% · a loss: 18%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier BrownG · transfer from South Florida | 1 | 22.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | −0.3 | +0.7 |
| Gavin WalshF | 1 | 22.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | +1.2 |
| Makel SmithG | 1 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −1.1 | +0.4 |
| Jahnathan LamotheG | 1 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | −0.7 | +0.5 |
| Patrick WesslerC | 1 | 18.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | +4.6 | +2.1 |
| Tahlan PettwayG · transfer from W Carolina | 1 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −0.4 | +0.5 |
| Tyler NelsonF | 1 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Spencer ElliottF · transfer from Charlotte | 1 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | −0.7 | +0.4 |
| CJ Luster IIG | 1 | 16.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Treyvon MaddoxG | 1 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Matija ProdanovicF | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.1 |
| William SewardF | 1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.1 |
| Kellum BrownG | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 155 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.5%rank 156 | 18.5%rank 135 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.8%rank 128 | 31.8%rank 161 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.3%rank 133 | 25.3%rank 155 | 25.3% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −0.5
- Last season's net rating
- +5.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 24%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.8
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 104.9 (rank 139)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 105.4 (rank 142)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.5 (rank 281)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Coastal Athletic Association by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNC Wilmington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.5 | 104.9 | 105.4 | 130 |
| 2 | Charleston | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.2 | 104.1 | 105.3 | 139 |
| 3 | Towson | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.6 | 102.6 | 105.1 | 151 |
| 4 | Monmouth | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.6 | 100.9 | 104.4 | 164 |
| 5 | Hofstra | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.7 | 102.1 | 105.8 | 165 |
| 6 | Elon | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 104.6 | 109.5 | 184 |
| 7 | Campbell | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.1 | 102.0 | 107.1 | 187 |
| 8 | William & Mary | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.9 | 101.5 | 108.4 | 216 |
| 9 | Drexel | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.4 | 98.6 | 106.0 | 224 |
| 10 | Northeastern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.7 | 103.9 | 112.6 | 241 |
| 11 | Stony Brook | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 100.5 | 109.8 | 248 |
| 12 | Hampton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.1 | 96.7 | 107.8 | 274 |
| 13 | North Carolina A&T | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.6 | 98.6 | 111.2 | 288 |