Stony Brook Seawolves
Next: at Northwestern · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ETProjected 63-85 · Game page
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-17
Net rating−9.3Rank 248 of 365 · offence 240, defence 264
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-17 (10 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-11
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs SUNY Old Westburynot Division I | Home | — | — | W 97-47 | |
| Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET | at Northwesternrank 61 | Away | 4% | 63-85 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | at Princetonrank 138 | Away | 20% | 68-78 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at NorthwesternA win: 3% · a loss: 2%+1 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at PrincetonA win: 2% · a loss: 2%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morris UgusukG · transfer from West Virginia | 1 | 24.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.1 | +0.4 |
| Ozgur CengizG | 1 | 23.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Bryan NdjongaF · transfer from Canisius | 1 | 22.0 | 18.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | −2.8 | −0.3 |
| Collin O'ConnorG | 1 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Jaden DaughtryF · transfer from Richmond | 1 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +0.7 | +1.0 |
| Jonah ButlerG | 1 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Leonardo Van ElswykC | 1 | 13.0 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Tomas ValentinyF | 1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Kingston PriceG · transfer from Fordham | 1 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −3.2 | −0.2 |
| Ethan SimmonG | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Quin GormanF | 1 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Efe VatanF · transfer from Oregon | 1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.4 | +0.1 |
| Kasen DaegerG | 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Liam DagostinoG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.4 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 153 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 155 | 18.6%rank 133 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 127 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 133 | 25.2%rank 152 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.3
- Last season's net rating
- −5.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 34%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.5
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.4 (rank 240)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.7 (rank 264)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.0 (rank 230)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Coastal Athletic Association by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNC Wilmington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.5 | 104.8 | 105.3 | 130 |
| 2 | Charleston | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.2 | 104.0 | 105.2 | 139 |
| 3 | Towson | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.6 | 102.5 | 105.0 | 151 |
| 4 | Monmouth | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.6 | 100.8 | 104.4 | 165 |
| 5 | Hofstra | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.7 | 102.0 | 105.7 | 166 |
| 6 | Elon | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 104.5 | 109.4 | 184 |
| 7 | Campbell | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.1 | 101.9 | 107.0 | 187 |
| 8 | William & Mary | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.9 | 101.4 | 108.3 | 215 |
| 9 | Drexel | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.4 | 98.5 | 105.9 | 223 |
| 10 | Northeastern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.7 | 103.8 | 112.5 | 241 |
| 11 | Stony Brook | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 100.4 | 109.7 | 248 |
| 12 | Hampton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.1 | 96.7 | 107.7 | 274 |
| 13 | North Carolina A&T | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.6 | 98.5 | 111.1 | 287 |