Troy Trojans
Next: at Florida St · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 65-86 · Game page
Makes the tournament10%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-14
Net rating−5.8Rank 194 of 365 · offence 230, defence 166
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-14 (12 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 12%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 10%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field10%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Massachusettsrank 134 | Home | 67% | 70-65 | L 60-71 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET | at Florida Staterank 54 | Away | 4% | 65-86 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | vs Loyola Marymountrank 180 | Home | 61% | 75-72 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at Florida StateA win: 10% · a loss: 10%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: vs Loyola MarymountA win: 10% · a loss: 10%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan OdayG · transfer from N Kentucky | 1 | 36.0 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | +1.4 | +2.2 |
| Jacoi HutchinsonG · transfer from Longwood | 1 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | −1.3 | +0.4 |
| Caua PachecoG | 1 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Caden DiggsF · transfer from UMBC | 1 | 21.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.5 |
| Sam WaltersF · transfer from SMU | 1 | 20.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Robert Davis Jr.G · transfer from Old Dominion | 1 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −3.4 | −0.4 |
| Willie Piggott Jr.G | 1 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Mobi IkegwurukaF · transfer from Kansas St | 1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Kerrington KielF | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.2 |
| Evan GriffinF | 1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 47.7%rank 360 | 51.0%rank 269 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.1%rank 84 | 18.2%rank 258 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.3%rank 315 | 33.3%rank 323 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 22.6%rank 343 | 23.5%rank 53 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.7 expected (−0.7)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +2.3 points a game (they shot 29.2%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.3 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −2.5
- Last season's net rating
- +1.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 9%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.5
- Change since preseason
- −3.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.7 (rank 230)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 106.5 (rank 166)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.1 (rank 317)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −0.9 (rank 117)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 101.7 | 105.0 | 162 |
| 2 | Arkansas State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.0 | 101.0 | 105.0 | 171 |
| 3 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 103.3 | 107.4 | 172 |
| 4 | Louisiana Tech | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.2 | 104.2 | 108.4 | 174 |
| 5 | Troy | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 100.7 | 106.5 | 194 |
| 6 | South Alabama | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 102.1 | 108.6 | 208 |
| 7 | Old Dominion | 2-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 98.8 | 106.0 | 219 |
| 8 | Southern Miss | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 99.2 | 108.7 | 250 |
| 9 | Coastal Carolina | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.0 | 99.3 | 109.3 | 257 |
| 10 | James Madison | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 100.2 | 110.9 | 265 |
| 11 | Georgia Southern | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 98.3 | 109.2 | 270 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 96.1 | 111.2 | 314 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 95.2 | 110.6 | 321 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 1-1 | 0-0 | −18.3 | 96.1 | 114.4 | 338 |