Miami (OH) RedHawks
Next: vs Bellarmine · Sat 7 Nov, 5 PM ETProjected 88-69 · Game page
Makes the tournament33%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.1
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 26-8
Net rating+5.0Rank 103 of 365 · offence 87, defence 119
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 26-8 (21 to 30 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 17-5
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 42%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 30%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.1
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field33%
- Round of 324%
- Sweet 161%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at James Madisonrank 258 | Away | 66% | 73-67 | W 86-77 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET | vs Bellarminerank 313 | Home | 95% | 88-69 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs BellarmineA win: 33% · a loss: 31%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke SkaljacG | 1 | 32.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | +1.6 | +2.1 |
| Almar AtlasonF | 1 | 31.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +0.5 | +1.4 |
| Evan IpsaroG | 1 | 27.0 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | +1.8 | +1.9 |
| Antwone WoolfolkF | 1 | 25.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | +2.8 | +2.2 |
| Justin KirbyG | 1 | 25.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | +0.4 | +1.1 |
| Stevie ElamG · transfer from Milwaukee | 1 | 21.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.6 |
| Kyle WaltzF | 1 | 21.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | +0.2 | +0.9 |
| Tyler RobbinsF | 1 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +1.8 | +0.8 |
| Alan HortonF | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
| Leshawn StowersG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.2%rank 69 | 49.0%rank 67 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.5%rank 30 | 18.5%rank 133 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 33.0%rank 57 | 31.4%rank 142 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.8%rank 127 | 22.7%rank 15 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.7 expected (+0.3)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −9.5 points a game (they shot 41.2%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +3.2
- Last season's net rating
- +9.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 48%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.3
- Change since preseason
- +1.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 108.9 (rank 87)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 103.9 (rank 119)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.4 (rank 50)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −10.6 (rank 209)
Mid-American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.0 | 108.9 | 103.9 | 103 |
| 2 | Akron | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.0 | 107.9 | 103.0 | 104 |
| 3 | Toledo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −0.7 | 105.0 | 105.7 | 133 |
| 4 | Massachusetts | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 103.2 | 104.2 | 135 |
| 5 | Ohio | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.0 | 105.9 | 107.8 | 144 |
| 6 | Kent State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.0 | 104.9 | 108.9 | 169 |
| 7 | Bowling Green | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.7 | 101.0 | 105.7 | 181 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.6 | 100.6 | 108.2 | 226 |
| 9 | Central Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.1 | 101.1 | 110.2 | 244 |
| 10 | Ball State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 97.1 | 107.8 | 262 |
| 11 | Western Michigan | 1-1 | 0-0 | −13.2 | 96.1 | 109.3 | 294 |
| 12 | Buffalo | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.7 | 97.0 | 111.7 | 311 |