Bowling Green Falcons

Men's · Mid-American Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Cleveland St · Mon 9 Nov, 7 PM ET

Cleveland St11%89%Bowling Green

Projected 84-69 · Game page

Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-14

Net rating−4.6Rank 182 of 365 · offence 212, defence 153

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-14 (14 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 3%
Wins the conference tournament: 4%
Average seed if in the field: 13.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field4%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Georgia Staterank 314	Away	58%	69-67	W 76-73	Right
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs Cleveland Staterank 332	Home	89%	84-69	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	vs Niagararank 358	Home	94%	80-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 4% · the next 7 days

Mon 9 Nov: vs Cleveland StateA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs NiagaraA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Zach HowellG	1	39.0	28.0	8.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.4
Josiah ShackelfordG	1	35.0	12.0	9.0	3.0	0.0	+1.3
Makhi LeachG	1	32.0	12.0	3.0	2.0	−1.5	+0.3
Tristan BeckfordG · transfer from South Florida	1	27.0	12.0	7.0	1.0	+1.3	+1.6
Preston SquireF	1	25.0	8.0	4.0	2.0	−2.2	−0.1
Juan Cranford Jr.G · transfer from E Kentucky	1	17.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	−2.0	0.0
Camden KarelF	1	10.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.1
Trey SimmonsG	1	9.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.2
Christ EssandokoF · transfer from South Carolina	1	5.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	−0.1	+0.2
KJ TorbertG	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.7	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.2%rank 35	49.9%rank 102	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.1%rank 79	18.2%rank 253	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.7%rank 72	28.9%rank 6	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.8%rank 97	21.8%rank 4	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.6 expected (+0.4)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −11.1 points a game (they shot 42.9%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.6
Last season's net rating: +2.2
Last season's minutes returning: 20%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −4.2
Change since preseason: +1.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 101.2 (rank 212)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 105.8 (rank 153)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.0 (rank 106)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −15.2 (rank 248)

Mid-American Conference by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Miami (OH)	1-0	0-0	+5.1	109.1	104.0	102
2	Akron	1-0	0-0	+5.1	108.1	103.0	103
3	Toledo	0-1	0-0	−0.6	105.2	105.8	132
4	Massachusetts	1-0	0-0	−0.9	103.4	104.3	134
5	Ohio	1-0	0-0	−1.8	106.1	107.9	144
6	Kent State	0-1	0-0	−3.9	105.1	109.0	170
7	Bowling Green	1-0	0-0	−4.6	101.2	105.8	182
8	Eastern Michigan	1-0	0-0	−7.5	100.8	108.2	225
9	Central Michigan	1-0	0-0	−9.0	101.3	110.3	244
10	Ball State	0-1	0-0	−10.6	97.3	107.9	260
11	Western Michigan	0-1	0-0	−13.1	96.3	109.4	293
12	Buffalo	0-1	0-0	−13.8	97.9	111.6	299