Ohio Bobcats
Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-13
Net rating−1.8Rank 144 of 365 · offence 117, defence 201
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-13 (15 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 7%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 8%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field8%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at South Alabamarank 209 | Away | 45% | 67-69 | W 86-77 | Wrong |
| Sat 7 Nov1 PM ET | vs North Carolina A&Trank 287 | Home | 86% | 84-71 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs North Carolina A&TA win: 8% · a loss: 8%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson PaveletzkeG | 1 | 38.0 | 20.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | +0.1 | +1.5 |
| Javan SimmonsF | 1 | 36.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | +0.8 | +1.9 |
| Dusan MakitanF | 1 | 36.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Kolton MitchellG · transfer from Idaho | 1 | 30.0 | 21.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | +1.3 | +1.8 |
| Siebe LedegenG | 1 | 27.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Kyler D'AugustinoG · transfer from IU Indy | 1 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 |
| Marin PetkovG | 1 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
| Kiir KuanyF | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Ché BroganG | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 53.3%rank 7 | 50.4%rank 231 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.1%rank 80 | 18.3%rank 253 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.9%rank 120 | 28.7%rank 5 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.7%rank 104 | 25.7%rank 260 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.6)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +3.3 points a game (they shot 27.3%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.3 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −2.6
- Last season's net rating
- −5.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 39%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.9
- Change since preseason
- +0.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 106.1 (rank 117)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.9 (rank 201)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.2 (rank 85)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −6.5 (rank 174)
Mid-American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.1 | 109.2 | 104.0 | 103 |
| 2 | Akron | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.1 | 108.1 | 103.1 | 104 |
| 3 | Toledo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 105.2 | 105.8 | 132 |
| 4 | Massachusetts | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.9 | 103.4 | 104.3 | 134 |
| 5 | Ohio | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.8 | 106.1 | 107.9 | 144 |
| 6 | Kent State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 105.2 | 109.0 | 168 |
| 7 | Bowling Green | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.6 | 101.3 | 105.8 | 182 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 100.8 | 108.3 | 225 |
| 9 | Central Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.9 | 101.3 | 110.3 | 244 |
| 10 | Ball State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 97.3 | 107.9 | 260 |
| 11 | Western Michigan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.1 | 96.3 | 109.4 | 293 |
| 12 | Buffalo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.7 | 97.9 | 111.6 | 299 |