UMass Lowell River Hawks

Men's · America East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Merrimack · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

UMass Lowell26%74%Merrimack

Projected 68-76 · Game page

Makes the tournament12%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18

Net rating−15.3Rank 318 of 365 · offence 295, defence 324

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-18 (10 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 16%
Wins the conference tournament: 12%
Average seed if in the field: 15.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field12%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Riviernot Division I	Home	—	—	W 121-57
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	at Merrimackrank 260	Away	26%	68-76	Live
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	vs Maristrank 278	Home	54%	72-71	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	at Massachusettsrank 134	Away	10%	68-84	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 12% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at MerrimackA win: 13% · a loss: 12%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs MaristA win: 13% · a loss: 12%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at MassachusettsA win: 11% · a loss: 13%−2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Christian JonesG · transfer from Siena	1	22.0	10.0	2.0	6.0	−3.6	−0.6
Elhadji DialloF	1	21.0	14.0	7.0	1.0	−2.5	−0.1
Kenyon GilesG	1	21.0	12.0	2.0	5.0	−2.4	−0.1
Jasiah CannadyG	1	20.0	16.0	3.0	7.0	−2.4	−0.1
Isaiah WalterG	1	20.0	9.0	3.0	2.0	−4.9	−1.0
Jaden FlemonsG	1	19.0	4.0	2.0	1.0	−2.5	−0.1
Jakai NewtonG · transfer from Georgia St	1	18.0	13.0	7.0	2.0	−2.8	−0.2
Jayden HarrisF · transfer from E Kentucky	1	16.0	13.0	6.0	1.0	−1.9	+0.1
Victor OkojieF	1	16.0	13.0	4.0	1.0	−4.0	−0.6
Jerrell Roberson IIF	1	15.0	8.0	10.0	2.0	−4.4	−0.6
Donovan HandF	1	12.0	9.0	2.0	1.0	−2.2	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 155	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 156	18.5%rank 135	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 128	31.8%rank 161	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.3%rank 133	25.3%rank 155	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −15.3
Last season's net rating: −14.2
Last season's minutes returning: 11%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.4
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 97.5 (rank 295)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 112.8 (rank 324)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.0 (rank 103)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

America East Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Vermont	0-1	0-0	−10.8	96.9	107.7	268
2	UMBC	0-1	0-0	−15.0	96.5	111.5	313
3	Bryant	1-0	0-0	−15.2	95.5	110.7	317
4	UMass Lowell	1-0	0-0	−15.3	97.5	112.8	318
5	New Hampshire	1-0	0-0	−15.3	94.0	109.3	320
6	UAlbany	1-0	0-0	−15.6	97.2	112.8	323
7	Maine	0-1	0-0	−18.4	92.0	110.4	340
8	Binghamton	0-1	0-0	−19.4	96.3	115.8	344
9	NJIT	0-1	0-0	−20.1	94.5	114.6	349