New Hampshire Wildcats
Makes the tournament12%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18
Net rating−15.3Rank 320 of 365 · offence 346, defence 248
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-18 (10 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 14%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 12%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field12%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Brownrank 246 | Away | 10% | 57-73 | W 59-55 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | at Riderrank 354 | Away | 52% | 71-70 | Live | |
| Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET | vs Sacred Heartrank 285 | Home | 57% | 74-71 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET | vs Thomas Collegenot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at RiderA win: 12% · a loss: 12%0 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: vs Sacred HeartA win: 12% · a loss: 12%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles BlackleyG | 1 | 32.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | −4.4 | −1.3 |
| Tyler BikeG | 1 | 30.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | −3.4 | −0.7 |
| Erik Oliver-BushG · transfer from Manhattan | 1 | 27.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −4.2 | −1.0 |
| John SquireF | 1 | 26.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Ryan ZanF · transfer from Fairfield | 1 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −4.1 | −0.9 |
| Josiah ColemanG | 1 | 23.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Drew McKennaF · transfer from Old Dominion | 1 | 21.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −1.2 | +0.3 |
| Giannos XanthopoulosC | 1 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.1 | −0.2 |
| Kaleb MyersF | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.6%rank 279 | 49.3%rank 65 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.9%rank 60 | 19.9%rank 19 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.6%rank 306 | 29.8%rank 27 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 29.2%rank 6 | 23.0%rank 36 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.1 expected (+0.9)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +0.4 points a game (they shot 31.6%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −19.8
- Last season's net rating
- −19.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 44%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.7
- Change since preseason
- +4.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 94.0 (rank 346)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.3 (rank 248)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.8 (rank 243)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −9.2 (rank 200)
America East Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 96.9 | 107.6 | 267 |
| 2 | UMBC | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.0 | 96.5 | 111.4 | 313 |
| 3 | Bryant | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 95.5 | 110.7 | 317 |
| 4 | UMass Lowell | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 97.4 | 112.7 | 319 |
| 5 | New Hampshire | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 94.0 | 109.3 | 320 |
| 6 | UAlbany | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.6 | 97.1 | 112.7 | 323 |
| 7 | Maine | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.4 | 92.0 | 110.4 | 339 |
| 8 | Binghamton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.4 | 96.3 | 115.7 | 344 |
| 9 | NJIT | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.1 | 94.5 | 114.5 | 349 |