Sacred Heart Pioneers

Men's · Metro Conference · 1-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at New Hampshire · Sun 8 Nov, 1 PM ET

Sacred Heart40%60%New Hampshire

Projected 70-73 · Game page

Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18

Net rating−13.2Rank 295 of 365 · offence 267, defence 316

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-18 (10 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 8%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 15.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field7%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Coast Guardnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 111-44
Thu 5 Nov	vs Mainerank 336	Home	76%	76-67	L 72-74	Wrong
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	at New Hampshirerank 308	Away	40%	70-73	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	vs Central Connecticutrank 335	Home	73%	77-70	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 7% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at New HampshireA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Central ConnecticutA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jaden SlaughterG	2	27.0	11.5	7.5	5.0	−3.7	−0.8
Jaylen RobinsonF · transfer from Richmond	2	25.0	15.5	7.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0
Griffin BarroukG	2	24.5	7.0	6.0	1.0	−2.7	−0.3
Kedrick CurtisF	2	22.5	8.5	8.5	2.0	−2.4	−0.1
Jo Van BuggenhoutG · transfer from Indiana St	2	22.0	4.0	5.5	4.5	−2.3	−0.1
Samson ReillyG · transfer from Quinnipiac	2	19.0	14.0	2.0	0.5	−2.2	−0.1
Jojo WallaceG	2	17.5	13.5	2.0	1.0	−2.3	−0.1
DJ BrownG	2	13.5	5.0	3.0	0.5	−2.1	0.0
Abdou YaddF	1	17.0	8.0	8.0	0.0	−4.4	−0.7
Mooda GittensG	1	15.0	7.0	7.0	1.0	−1.8	+0.1
Kevin PikiellG	1	10.0	7.0	2.0	0.0	−1.7	+0.1
Malik SheppardG	1	8.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	−4.6	−0.4
Jeremiah JacobsG	1	7.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−4.2	−0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.2%rank 358	51.1%rank 287	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.5%rank 33	17.2%rank 349	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.1%rank 323	29.9%rank 29	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.9%rank 118	25.3%rank 144	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.8 expected (−0.8)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −5.2 points a game (they shot 38.5%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −12.5
Last season's net rating: −11.5
Last season's minutes returning: 16%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.3
Change since preseason: −0.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 98.8 (rank 267)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 112.1 (rank 316)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 110)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −17.9 (rank 280)

Metro Conference by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Siena	0-1	0-0	−9.2	99.2	108.4	246
2	Iona	2-0	0-0	−10.4	95.4	105.8	255
3	Quinnipiac	1-1	0-0	−10.8	96.9	107.7	264
4	Fairfield	0-1	0-0	−11.0	101.4	112.4	271
5	Marist	1-1	0-0	−11.2	95.9	107.1	275
6	Merrimack	0-2	0-0	−12.7	97.1	109.8	286
7	Mount St. Mary's	0-1	0-0	−12.7	95.3	108.0	286
8	Sacred Heart	1-1	0-0	−13.2	98.8	112.1	295
9	Saint Peter's	0-2	0-0	−16.1	92.6	108.7	325
10	Manhattan	0-2	0-0	−16.4	97.7	114.1	328
11	Rider	0-2	0-0	−22.3	91.2	113.5	357
12	Niagara	0-1	0-0	−22.5	90.9	113.4	358
13	Canisius	0-1	0-0	−24.4	92.2	116.6	364