Brown Bears

Men's · Ivy League · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Boston U · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Boston U37%63%Brown

Projected 74-70 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-17

Net rating−9.1Rank 246 of 365 · offence 321, defence 138

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 13-17 (8 to 18 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 14.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs New Hampshirerank 320	Home	90%	73-57	L 55-59	Wrong
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Boston Universityrank 243	Home	63%	74-70	—
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at Lehighrank 234	Away	34%	69-74	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	vs Canisiusrank 363	Home	91%	78-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Boston UniversityA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at LehighA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs CanisiusA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Brady LoughlinG	1	37.0	12.0	5.0	1.0	−3.3	−0.8
Jeremiah JenkinsG	1	32.0	17.0	5.0	3.0	−1.8	+0.1
N'famara DaboF	1	27.0	8.0	9.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.8
Jerrell Barron Jr.G	1	23.0	6.0	2.0	2.0	−1.7	+0.1
Timmy BollinG	1	21.0	2.0	7.0	1.0	−1.7	+0.1
Ray CuevasG	1	16.0	3.0	3.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.1
Rykan WooG	1	14.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	−1.5	+0.1
Wyatt DeGraafF	1	10.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	−2.0	0.0
Charlie O'SullivanF	1	9.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−1.6	+0.1
David RochesterG	1	7.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	−2.7	−0.1
Kenneth Francis Jr.G	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−1.2	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.3%rank 302	49.7%rank 84	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.9%rank 346	17.9%rank 305	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	29.8%rank 342	30.5%rank 58	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.0%rank 329	29.2%rank 360	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.9 expected (−0.9)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.3 points a game (they shot 27.3%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −4.6
Last season's net rating: −10.8
Last season's minutes returning: 87%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: −4.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 96.0 (rank 321)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 105.2 (rank 138)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.8 (rank 252)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −15.3 (rank 253)

Ivy League by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Yale	1-0	0-0	+4.5	108.7	104.2	106
2	Harvard	1-0	0-0	+1.4	104.9	103.5	121
3	Pennsylvania	0-0	0-0	−0.6	104.9	105.4	131
4	Princeton	1-0	0-0	−1.2	104.3	105.5	138
5	Cornell	1-0	0-0	−4.3	106.8	111.2	177
6	Dartmouth	2-0	0-0	−4.4	100.4	104.8	178
7	Columbia	0-1	0-0	−6.4	103.8	110.2	205
8	Brown	0-1	0-0	−9.1	96.0	105.2	246