St. Bonaventure Bonnies
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-19
Net rating−5.0Rank 183 of 365 · offence 187, defence 184
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 14-19 (9 to 19 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 5-13
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Youngstown Staterank 201 | Home | 81% | 73-62 | L 71-79 | Wrong |
| Sat 7 Nov7 PM ET | at Canisiusrank 363 | Away | 81% | 79-68 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | vs Cornellrank 177 | Home | 63% | 81-77 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at CanisiusA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs CornellA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach PhilipkoskiG | 1 | 33.0 | 28.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | −1.1 | +0.6 |
| Ari FultonG · transfer from NJIT | 1 | 31.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | −1.2 | +0.5 |
| Taj Au-DukeG | 1 | 31.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −1.2 | +0.5 |
| Benjamin BillC | 1 | 29.0 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | −1.1 | +0.5 |
| Ilia ErmakovG | 1 | 27.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | −1.3 | +0.4 |
| Cameron BlankenbergF | 1 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Akbar Waheed IIIG | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.3 |
| Ryan KalambayF · transfer from Detroit Mercy | 1 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +0.8 | +0.6 |
| Ryan HeathG | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.8%rank 270 | 50.9%rank 259 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.9%rank 272 | 18.1%rank 282 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.8%rank 290 | 34.4%rank 353 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 22.9%rank 335 | 25.3%rank 236 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.8 expected (−0.8)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −5.0 points a game (they shot 37.5%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −1.1
- Last season's net rating
- +2.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 14%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.8
- Change since preseason
- −3.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 102.4 (rank 187)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.3 (rank 184)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.4 (rank 185)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −6.2 (rank 166)
Atlantic 10 Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Louis | 1-0 | 0-0 | +14.2 | 114.7 | 100.5 | 56 |
| 2 | VCU | 1-0 | 0-0 | +12.8 | 113.1 | 100.3 | 60 |
| 3 | George Mason | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.4 | 107.0 | 99.6 | 91 |
| 4 | George Washington | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.2 | 106.0 | 98.8 | 93 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.8 | 108.5 | 101.6 | 95 |
| 6 | Dayton | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.4 | 109.1 | 102.7 | 97 |
| 7 | Davidson | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.0 | 107.0 | 102.0 | 104 |
| 8 | Duquesne | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.8 | 105.4 | 102.6 | 116 |
| 9 | Saint Joseph's | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 104.6 | 103.2 | 122 |
| 10 | Fordham | 0-1 | 0-0 | −0.3 | 103.7 | 103.9 | 128 |
| 11 | Richmond | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.1 | 105.7 | 106.8 | 136 |
| 12 | Loyola Chicago | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.6 | 103.6 | 105.2 | 142 |
| 13 | St. Bonaventure | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 102.4 | 107.3 | 183 |
| 14 | La Salle | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.1 | 100.9 | 107.0 | 199 |