George Mason Patriots

Men's · Atlantic 10 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Coppin St · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Coppin St1%99%George Mason

Projected 84-56 · Game page

Makes the tournament16%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.0

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 24-10

Net rating+7.4Rank 89 of 365 · offence 106, defence 63

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-10 (19 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 7%
Wins the conference tournament: 9%
Average seed if in the field: 11.0
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field16%
Round of 324%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs UMBCrank 313	Home	92%	75-57	W 82-54	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Coppin Staterank 362	Home	99%	84-56	—
Thu 12 Nov3 PM ET	vs Kansas Cityrank 303	Neutral	92%	79-63	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 16% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Coppin StateA win: 16% · a loss: 16%+1 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Kansas CityA win: 16% · a loss: 15%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Brayden O'ConnorG	1	29.0	11.0	8.0	2.0	+0.1	+1.1
Baraka OkojieG · transfer from Mercer	1	27.0	7.0	4.0	5.0	+2.7	+2.2
Elijah JonesF · transfer from UTEP	1	25.0	13.0	8.0	0.0	+1.7	+1.6
Efeosa Oliogu-ElaborG · transfer from Butler	1	25.0	17.0	6.0	3.0	+1.9	+1.7
Emmanuel KangaF	1	24.0	6.0	10.0	1.0	+4.0	+2.5
Makhai ValentineG · transfer from N Illinois	1	23.0	12.0	3.0	0.0	+0.3	+0.9
Shane PendergrassF	1	15.0	11.0	6.0	2.0	+0.1	+0.6
Emmett AdairF · transfer from Loyola MD	1	12.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.5
Malik PresleyG	1	10.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	+0.9	+0.5
Michael Marcus Jr.F · transfer from App State	1	4.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+1.7	+0.3
Peyton MillerG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.1
Ryan-Preston MendyF	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.1
Bryton BarrettF	1	2.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.0%rank 317	48.1%rank 20	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.2%rank 103	17.8%rank 315	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.7%rank 75	31.9%rank 246	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.5%rank 258	22.6%rank 21	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +6.1 points a game (they shot 25.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +5.3
Last season's net rating: +8.0
Last season's minutes returning: 15%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −6.5
Change since preseason: +2.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 107.0 (rank 106)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.6 (rank 63)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.9 (rank 334)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −15.0 (rank 249)

Atlantic 10 Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Louis	1-0	0-0	+14.2	114.7	100.5	56
2	VCU	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.1	100.3	60
3	George Mason	1-0	0-0	+7.4	107.0	99.6	89
4	George Washington	1-0	0-0	+7.2	106.0	98.8	91
5	Rhode Island	1-0	0-0	+6.8	108.5	101.7	93
6	Dayton	1-0	0-0	+6.4	109.1	102.7	96
7	Davidson	1-0	0-0	+5.0	107.0	102.0	105
8	Duquesne	1-0	0-0	+2.8	105.4	102.6	116
9	Saint Joseph's	1-0	0-0	+1.4	104.6	103.3	122
10	Fordham	0-1	0-0	−0.2	103.7	103.9	128
11	Richmond	1-0	0-0	−1.1	105.7	106.8	136
12	Loyola Chicago	1-0	0-0	−1.7	103.6	105.3	142
13	St. Bonaventure	0-1	0-0	−5.0	102.4	107.4	185
14	La Salle	0-1	0-0	−6.1	100.9	107.1	199