Davidson Wildcats

Men's · Atlantic 10 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Mercer · Sat 7 Nov, 7 PM ET

Mercer13%87%Davidson

Projected 80-66 · Game page

Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 22-12

Net rating+5.0Rank 104 of 365 · offence 105, defence 99

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-12 (16 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 5%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 11.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field9%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Washington Staterank 173	Away	57%	68-66	W 76-61	Right
Sat 7 Nov7 PM ET	vs Mercerrank 228	Home	87%	80-66	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Bradleyrank 129	Home	75%	76-68	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 9% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs MercerA win: 9% · a loss: 8%+1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs BradleyA win: 9% · a loss: 8%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Nick JanowskiG · transfer from St Thomas	1	34.0	21.0	3.0	4.0	+2.2	+2.5
Ian PlatteeuwC	1	34.0	10.0	9.0	8.0	+1.2	+1.9
Josh ScovensF	1	33.0	17.0	8.0	1.0	+2.9	+2.8
Sam BrownG	1	33.0	22.0	4.0	3.0	−0.2	+1.1
Jackson KeithF · transfer from Butler	1	21.0	3.0	7.0	1.0	0.0	+0.8
Nick CovalG	1	14.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	+0.4	+0.6
Eetu HeinonenG	1	11.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.2
JaQualon RobertsF	1	8.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.4
John Carter Jr.G	1	7.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.2
Tom StoiberF	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	53.6%rank 5	47.4%rank 3	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 152	18.2%rank 269	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.3%rank 245	31.2%rank 112	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.6%rank 307	22.1%rank 10	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.6 expected (+0.4)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +8.3 points a game (they shot 20.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +4.5
Last season's net rating: +5.0
Last season's minutes returning: 45%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.3
Change since preseason: +0.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 107.0 (rank 105)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 102.0 (rank 99)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.5 (rank 358)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −4.2 (rank 146)

Atlantic 10 Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Louis	1-0	0-0	+14.2	114.7	100.5	56
2	VCU	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.1	100.3	60
3	George Mason	1-0	0-0	+7.4	107.0	99.6	91
4	George Washington	1-0	0-0	+7.2	106.0	98.8	93
5	Rhode Island	1-0	0-0	+6.8	108.5	101.6	95
6	Dayton	1-0	0-0	+6.4	109.1	102.7	97
7	Davidson	1-0	0-0	+5.0	107.0	102.0	104
8	Duquesne	1-0	0-0	+2.8	105.4	102.6	116
9	Saint Joseph's	1-0	0-0	+1.4	104.6	103.2	122
10	Fordham	0-1	0-0	−0.3	103.7	103.9	128
11	Richmond	1-0	0-0	−1.1	105.7	106.8	136
12	Loyola Chicago	1-0	0-0	−1.6	103.6	105.2	142
13	St. Bonaventure	0-1	0-0	−5.0	102.4	107.3	183
14	La Salle	0-1	0-0	−6.1	100.9	107.0	199