George Washington Revolutionaries

Men's · Atlantic 10 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Hampton · Sat 7 Nov, 6 PM ET

Hampton6%94%G Washington

Projected 81-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament16%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 24-10

Net rating+7.2Rank 93 of 365 · offence 119, defence 56

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-10 (18 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 12%
Wins the conference tournament: 9%
Average seed if in the field: 10.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field16%
Round of 324%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Navyrank 282	Home	73%	71-63	W 91-39	Right
Sat 7 Nov6 PM ET	vs Hamptonrank 274	Home	94%	81-62	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Elonrank 184	Home	88%	82-68	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 16% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs HamptonA win: 16% · a loss: 14%+2 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs ElonA win: 16% · a loss: 15%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jean ArangurenG	1	21.0	9.0	4.0	5.0	+3.0	+1.9
Felix KossarasG · transfer from Colorado	1	21.0	14.0	4.0	1.0	+1.1	+1.2
Omari WitherspoonG · transfer from Pitt	1	21.0	6.0	4.0	3.0	+0.8	+1.1
Dylan JamesF · transfer from Georgia	1	20.0	8.0	6.0	1.0	+3.6	+2.0
Terrance ArceneauxG · transfer from NC State	1	19.0	8.0	2.0	2.0	+3.5	+1.9
Andrew PhillipsG · transfer from Lafayette	1	19.0	2.0	1.0	2.0	−0.6	+0.5
Ryder FrostF · transfer from Notre Dame	1	19.0	14.0	4.0	0.0	+1.5	+1.2
Promis N'LanduG	1	19.0	14.0	2.0	3.0	−0.4	+0.6
Lovro UrbihaF	1	19.0	7.0	4.0	3.0	−0.5	+0.6
Andrija VukovicF · transfer from Oklahoma St	1	17.0	9.0	9.0	0.0	+2.9	+1.5
Malachi ArringtonF · transfer from NJIT	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.9	0.0
Jayvon RampersantF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1
Amir ArringtonG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.4%rank 26	47.2%rank 2	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.9%rank 269	19.5%rank 37	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.8%rank 289	30.8%rank 79	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.9%rank 233	24.2%rank 84	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.7 expected (+0.3)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +11.5 points a game (they shot 11.1%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −0.1
Last season's net rating: +11.4
Last season's minutes returning: 12%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.1
Change since preseason: +7.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 106.0 (rank 119)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.8 (rank 56)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.2 (rank 85)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −12.0 (rank 221)

Atlantic 10 Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Louis	1-0	0-0	+14.2	114.7	100.5	56
2	VCU	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.1	100.3	60
3	George Mason	1-0	0-0	+7.4	107.0	99.6	91
4	George Washington	1-0	0-0	+7.2	106.0	98.8	93
5	Rhode Island	1-0	0-0	+6.8	108.5	101.6	95
6	Dayton	1-0	0-0	+6.4	109.1	102.7	97
7	Davidson	1-0	0-0	+5.0	107.0	102.0	104
8	Duquesne	1-0	0-0	+2.8	105.4	102.6	116
9	Saint Joseph's	1-0	0-0	+1.4	104.6	103.2	122
10	Fordham	0-1	0-0	−0.3	103.7	103.9	128
11	Richmond	1-0	0-0	−1.1	105.7	106.8	136
12	Loyola Chicago	1-0	0-0	−1.6	103.6	105.2	142
13	St. Bonaventure	0-1	0-0	−5.0	102.4	107.3	183
14	La Salle	0-1	0-0	−6.1	100.9	107.0	199