Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
Next: vs Albion · Sat 7 Nov, 7 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-17
Net rating−7.8Rank 230 of 365 · offence 238, defence 217
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-17 (11 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 5%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 5%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field5%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Duquesnerank 116 | Away | 18% | 70-81 | L 71-78 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov7 PM ET | vs Albionnot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET | vs Western Michiganrank 293 | Home | 76% | 77-68 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 12 Nov: vs Western MichiganA win: 5% · a loss: 6%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Craig Jr.G | 1 | 30.0 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | −0.4 | +0.9 |
| Ashton WilliamsonG · transfer from FIU | 1 | 29.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Anthony Isaac Jr.F · transfer from Manhattan | 1 | 28.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −1.2 | +0.4 |
| Edir OrtizF | 1 | 27.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −1.4 | +0.3 |
| Chris MorganG | 1 | 21.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | −3.4 | −0.5 |
| EJ MosleyG | 1 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −2.8 | −0.3 |
| Carl Thompson IIIG | 1 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.2 | +0.3 |
| Tamaje IzuagbeG | 1 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.2 |
| DeAndre LewisG | 1 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.2 |
| Mason ShroutG | 1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | 0.0 |
| Quentin MorganF | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.2%rank 81 | 50.7%rank 252 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.3%rank 129 | 19.4%rank 39 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.3%rank 244 | 31.1%rank 108 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.2%rank 274 | 25.0%rank 136 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +0.5 points a game (they shot 31.2%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −6.9
- Last season's net rating
- −7.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 28%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.2
- Change since preseason
- −0.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.5 (rank 238)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.3 (rank 217)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.5 (rank 158)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +2.8 (rank 109)
Horizon League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wright State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.4 | 108.1 | 107.7 | 124 |
| 2 | Oakland | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 105.2 | 108.2 | 157 |
| 3 | Northern Kentucky | 2-0 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 106.3 | 110.6 | 176 |
| 4 | Youngstown State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 100.6 | 106.8 | 200 |
| 5 | Robert Morris | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.3 | 101.8 | 108.1 | 203 |
| 6 | Green Bay | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.6 | 103.3 | 109.9 | 211 |
| 7 | Milwaukee | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.1 | 100.7 | 107.9 | 218 |
| 8 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 100.5 | 108.3 | 230 |
| 9 | Detroit Mercy | 0-0 | 0-0 | −8.0 | 101.0 | 109.0 | 233 |
| 10 | IU Indianapolis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.5 | 99.5 | 113.0 | 297 |
| 11 | Cleveland State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −17.2 | 97.9 | 115.1 | 332 |
| 12 | Northern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.2 | 97.0 | 117.2 | 351 |