Wright State Raiders
Makes the tournament29%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 24-10
Net rating+0.4Rank 124 of 365 · offence 96, defence 194
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 24-10 (18 to 29 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 15-5
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 44%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 28%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field29%
- Round of 322%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Air Forcerank 298 | Home | 77% | 72-63 | W 102-71 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Florida Atlanticrank 127 | Home | 66% | 80-75 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | at Toledorank 132 | Away | 38% | 76-80 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs Florida AtlanticA win: 29% · a loss: 28%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at ToledoA win: 29% · a loss: 28%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic PangonisG | 1 | 32.0 | 30.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | −0.3 | +1.0 |
| Chadlyn TraylorG · transfer from Charleston | 1 | 29.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Kellen PickettF | 1 | 26.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | +2.0 | +1.9 |
| C.J. O'HaraG · transfer from Green Bay | 1 | 25.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +1.1 | +1.4 |
| Ilija MilijasevicG | 1 | 21.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Noah LewisF | 1 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.5 |
| Andrea HoldenG | 1 | 19.0 | 20.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | +2.6 | +1.6 |
| Isaiah WilliamsG | 1 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.3 |
| Nikola DjapaC · transfer from Colorado St | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| PJ DouglasG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.1 |
| Terrence Hayes Jr.G | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | 0.0 |
| Sam JohnsonF | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 52.5%rank 22 | 49.0%rank 45 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.1%rank 289 | 17.9%rank 300 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 33.6%rank 30 | 35.1%rank 361 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.6%rank 258 | 26.6%rank 300 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.2 points a game (they shot 26.9%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −3.3
- Last season's net rating
- +2.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 32%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.5
- Change since preseason
- +3.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 108.1 (rank 96)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.6 (rank 194)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.8 (rank 125)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −13.6 (rank 232)
Horizon League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wright State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.4 | 108.1 | 107.6 | 124 |
| 2 | Oakland | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 105.2 | 108.2 | 157 |
| 3 | Northern Kentucky | 2-0 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 106.3 | 110.6 | 176 |
| 4 | Youngstown State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 100.6 | 106.7 | 201 |
| 5 | Robert Morris | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.3 | 101.8 | 108.1 | 204 |
| 6 | Green Bay | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.6 | 103.3 | 109.9 | 211 |
| 7 | Milwaukee | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 100.7 | 107.9 | 218 |
| 8 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 100.5 | 108.3 | 230 |
| 9 | Detroit Mercy | 0-0 | 0-0 | −8.0 | 100.9 | 109.0 | 233 |
| 10 | IU Indianapolis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.5 | 99.5 | 113.0 | 297 |
| 11 | Cleveland State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −17.2 | 97.9 | 115.1 | 332 |
| 12 | Northern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.2 | 97.0 | 117.2 | 351 |