Marquette Golden Eagles

Men's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Detroit Mercy · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

Detroit Mercy1%99%Marquette

Projected 89-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament72%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.0

Wins the national title0%Final Four 4% · projected 24-11

Net rating+20.1Rank 29 of 365 · offence 33, defence 18

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-11 (18 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 20%
Wins the conference tournament: 16%
Average seed if in the field: 6.0
A 1 seed: 1%

Makes the field72%
Round of 3252%
Sweet 1624%
Elite Eight10%
Final Four4%
Title game1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Mercyhurstrank 335	Home	99%	83-52	W 78-43	Right
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	vs Detroit Mercyrank 233	Home	99%	89-62	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	at Michiganrank 6	Away	18%	72-83	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 72% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Detroit MercyA win: 72% · a loss: 68%+4 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at MichiganA win: 77% · a loss: 71%+6 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Sananda FruF · transfer from Louisville	1	23.0	12.0	12.0	1.0	+8.5	+4.3
Adrien StevensG	1	22.0	3.0	1.0	4.0	+3.2	+2.1
Nigel James Jr.G	1	21.0	8.0	2.0	3.0	+6.3	+3.1
Royce ParhamF	1	20.0	16.0	7.0	2.0	+4.7	+2.4
Nolan MinessaleG · transfer from St Thomas	1	19.0	2.0	2.0	3.0	+6.5	+2.9
Damarius OwensSF	1	17.0	4.0	3.0	3.0	+3.1	+1.6
Joshua ClarkF	1	17.0	18.0	7.0	1.0	+3.0	+1.6
Alex EgbuonuSF	1	16.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.8
Michael Phillips IISF	1	14.0	3.0	4.0	2.0	+1.4	+0.9
Ethan JohnstonG	1	11.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	+1.0	+0.6
Colin PorterG · transfer from Liberty	1	10.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	+2.9	+0.9
Ian MileticSF	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+1.2	+0.2
Nash WalkerG	1	4.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	+1.2	+0.2
Braeden BrennF	1	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	+2.0	+0.1
Colton CrowdisG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.3	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.8%rank 268	48.3%rank 22	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.7%rank 246	19.4%rank 43	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	35.7%rank 2	32.3%rank 263	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.9%rank 235	23.0%rank 33	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +14.2 points a game (they shot 14.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +18.7
Last season's net rating: +9.1
Last season's minutes returning: 60%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.5
Change since preseason: +1.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.8 (rank 33)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.6 (rank 18)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.6 (rank 142)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −17.6 (rank 268)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+24.4	115.6	91.2	13
2	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+21.3	113.0	91.8	22
3	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+20.1	114.8	94.6	29
4	Xavier	1-0	0-0	+18.1	114.1	96.0	33
5	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+17.0	113.9	96.9	36
6	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+15.2	112.5	97.3	50
7	Providence	1-0	0-0	+11.8	111.5	99.7	66
8	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+10.9	110.0	99.1	71
9	DePaul	1-0	0-0	+9.9	107.6	97.7	77
10	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+9.9	106.0	96.1	78
11	Butler	2-0	0-0	+8.7	111.1	102.3	84