Seton Hall Pirates

Men's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Long Island · Thu 5 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

Long Island3%97%Seton Hall

Projected 80-57 · Game page

Makes the tournament12%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 16-17

Net rating+9.9Rank 78 of 365 · offence 118, defence 32

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-17 (11 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-13
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field12%
Round of 325%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Saint Peter'srank 290	Home	93%	74-55	W 66-42	Right
Thu 5 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Long Island Universityrank 307	Home	97%	80-57	—
Mon 9 Nov9:30 PM ET	vs Charlotterank 149	Neutral	78%	74-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 12% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs Long Island UniversityA win: 12% · a loss: 11%+1 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs CharlotteA win: 13% · a loss: 11%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Elijah FisherG	1	20.0	7.0	4.0	1.0	+3.2	+1.8
Simeon WilcherG · transfer from Texas	1	19.0	8.0	3.0	1.0	+2.6	+1.6
Del JonesG · transfer from Radford	1	19.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	+0.8	+0.9
Roddie AndersonG · transfer from Xavier	1	19.0	15.0	2.0	2.0	+3.0	+1.7
Terry Copeland Jr.F	1	19.0	10.0	2.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.6
Trey ParkerG	1	18.0	0.0	2.0	3.0	+2.9	+1.6
Devin WilliamsF · transfer from FAU	1	15.0	5.0	3.0	1.0	+3.5	+1.4
Mayar WolF · transfer from Bowling Green	1	14.0	2.0	5.0	0.0	+2.6	+1.1
Mihailo PetrovicG · transfer from Illinois	1	14.0	3.0	2.0	3.0	+3.8	+1.4
Kareem ThomasG · transfer from Dartmouth	1	13.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.6
Darien Moore Jr.G	1	12.0	7.0	1.0	1.0	−0.1	+0.4
Rodney Brown Jr.G · transfer from LMU	1	11.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	+1.4	+0.7
Ilay DolinskiF	1	5.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.2
Theo AirhienbuwaF	1	3.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	+0.2	+0.1
Abdulai Fanta KabbaC · transfer from W Carolina	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.6	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.1%rank 242	48.6%rank 28	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.1%rank 292	19.3%rank 51	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 124	31.5%rank 145	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.6%rank 109	24.6%rank 116	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +1.3 points a game (they shot 30.4%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +8.3
Last season's net rating: +15.8
Last season's minutes returning: 18%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.2
Change since preseason: +1.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 106.0 (rank 118)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 96.1 (rank 32)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.0 (rank 330)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −12.8 (rank 225)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+24.4	115.6	91.2	12
2	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+21.3	113.0	91.7	22
3	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+20.2	114.8	94.6	29
4	Xavier	1-0	0-0	+18.2	114.1	96.0	33
5	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+17.0	113.9	96.9	36
6	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+15.2	112.5	97.2	50
7	Providence	1-0	0-0	+11.8	111.4	99.7	66
8	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+10.9	109.9	99.0	71
9	DePaul	1-0	0-0	+10.0	107.6	97.6	77
10	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+9.9	106.0	96.1	78
11	Butler	2-0	0-0	+8.8	111.1	102.3	84