Utah Valley Wolverines
Makes the tournament23%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.1
Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 22-10
Net rating+3.4Rank 113 of 365 · offence 115, defence 108
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 22-10 (16 to 28 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 15-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 27%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 21%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.1
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field23%
- Round of 323%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four<1%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Western Coloradonot Division I | Home | — | — | W 84-63 | |
| Sat 7 Nov9 PM ET | at Weber Staterank 281 | Away | 74% | 80-72 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at Weber StateA win: 23% · a loss: 22%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac DavisF | 1 | 26.0 | 22.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +2.1 | +2.0 |
| Braden HousleyG | 1 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | −1.0 | +0.4 |
| Dominick NelsonG · transfer from Iowa State | 1 | 21.0 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | +3.4 | +2.1 |
| Jordy BarnesG · transfer from Utah State | 1 | 20.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | +0.6 | +0.9 |
| Sherman Weatherspoon IVG | 1 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −0.3 | +0.6 |
| Tyler WeaverF | 1 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 |
| Isaac HawkinsF | 1 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +4.2 | +1.8 |
| Tyler MedarisF | 1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 |
| AJ DixonG | 1 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.2 |
| Deng DengF | 1 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.2 |
| Tanner DavisG · transfer from Utah Tech | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Jaxson RobertsG | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Sebastian MuchitschG | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Omar MowafakF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
| Modestas BabraitisG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 156 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.5%rank 155 | 18.5%rank 133 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.8%rank 128 | 31.8%rank 162 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.1%rank 133 | 25.1%rank 154 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +3.4
- Last season's net rating
- +9.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 38%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.5
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 106.2 (rank 115)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 102.8 (rank 108)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.8 (rank 119)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC San Diego | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 105.7 | 101.5 | 108 |
| 2 | UC Irvine | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 104.4 | 100.2 | 109 |
| 3 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.4 | 106.2 | 102.8 | 113 |
| 4 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 106.3 | 106.3 | 125 |
| 5 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 106.2 | 107.3 | 135 |
| 6 | Cal State Northridge | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.4 | 100.7 | 106.1 | 189 |
| 7 | California Baptist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 98.7 | 104.8 | 201 |
| 8 | Cal State Fullerton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 103.8 | 110.2 | 206 |
| 9 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.2 | 100.5 | 108.7 | 235 |
| 10 | Long Beach State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.9 | 98.6 | 107.5 | 245 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.2 | 99.9 | 110.0 | 258 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 98.8 | 110.9 | 283 |