San Diego Toreros

Men's · West Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Tarleton St · Fri 6 Nov, 9:30 PM ET

Tarleton St30%70%San Diego

Projected 78-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-18

Net rating−7.2Rank 219 of 365 · offence 211, defence 225

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 13-18 (8 to 18 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-10
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Biolanot Division I	Home	—	—	W 79-62
Fri 6 Nov9:30 PM ET	vs Tarleton Staterank 253	Home	70%	78-71	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	at Coloradorank 52	Away	4%	66-88	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Tarleton StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at ColoradoA win: 2% · a loss: <1%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Dusty StromerG · transfer from Grand Canyon	1	24.0	12.0	6.0	3.0	−0.8	+0.5
Davion HillG · transfer from Ball State	1	20.0	9.0	2.0	4.0	−0.2	+0.7
Jose Roberto TanchynF · transfer from UMBC	1	20.0	6.0	7.0	2.0	−0.5	+0.6
Sekou KonnehF · transfer from Milwaukee	1	20.0	15.0	7.0	1.0	+0.1	+0.8
Terry McMorrisF · transfer from E Illinois	1	20.0	4.0	3.0	2.0	−2.1	0.0
Chace HolleyG	1	20.0	10.0	6.0	2.0	−2.5	−0.1
Brannon MartinsenF	1	19.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	−2.5	−0.1
Marqui Worthy Jr.G · transfer from UC Riverside	1	18.0	15.0	3.0	1.0	−1.2	+0.3
Jevon HillF	1	16.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	−2.4	−0.1
Antonio MunozF · transfer from Grambling	1	13.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	−2.2	0.0
Braylon RomanG	1	10.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−2.2	0.0
Nick Del BosqueG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−3.8	0.0
Boden GrantG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−2.0	0.0
Caleb VersherG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−3.4	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 156	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 155	18.5%rank 133	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 128	31.8%rank 162	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.1%rank 133	25.1%rank 154	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −7.2
Last season's net rating: −6.3
Last season's minutes returning: 4%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −5.6
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 101.4 (rank 211)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 108.5 (rank 225)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.5 (rank 158)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

West Coast Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Mary's	2-0	0-0	+14.2	114.2	100.0	55
2	Santa Clara	2-0	0-0	+12.3	113.2	100.9	64
3	San Francisco	1-0	0-0	+2.5	105.7	103.2	117
4	Seattle U	0-1	0-0	+2.5	102.7	100.2	118
5	Pepperdine	0-1	0-0	−3.0	103.6	106.7	158
6	Loyola Marymount	0-1	0-0	−4.5	104.1	108.6	181
7	Pacific	1-0	0-0	−5.4	101.7	107.1	190
8	Denver	0-1	0-0	−6.9	102.7	109.5	214
9	San Diego	1-0	0-0	−7.2	101.4	108.5	219
10	Portland	1-0	0-0	−8.2	100.7	108.8	236