Colorado Buffaloes

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs San Diego St · Sat 7 Nov, 3:30 PM ET

San Diego St35%65%Colorado

Projected 81-76 · Game page

Makes the tournament35%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.3

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 18-14

Net rating+14.8Rank 52 of 365 · offence 39, defence 62

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-14 (13 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-11
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.3
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field35%
Round of 3220%
Sweet 166%
Elite Eight2%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Abilene Christianrank 253	Home	95%	79-59	W 94-59	Right
Sat 7 Nov3:30 PM ET	vs San Diego Staterank 83	Neutral	65%	81-76	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	vs San Diegorank 219	Home	96%	88-66	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 35% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs San Diego StateA win: 37% · a loss: 30%+7 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs San DiegoA win: 35% · a loss: 33%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ian InmanG	1	27.0	9.0	1.0	3.0	+2.5	+2.2
Josiah SandersG	1	27.0	14.0	4.0	0.0	+2.7	+2.3
Alex DickesonG	1	27.0	9.0	5.0	6.0	+1.1	+1.5
Barrington HargressG	1	26.0	11.0	2.0	4.0	+5.3	+3.5
Noah FeddersenC · transfer from N Dakota St	1	23.0	10.0	5.0	0.0	+4.4	+2.7
Jalin HollandG	1	20.0	18.0	6.0	1.0	+2.6	+1.7
Justin NeelyF · transfer from UNC Greensboro	1	16.0	14.0	5.0	3.0	+5.1	+2.1
Goc MalualF	1	16.0	4.0	5.0	1.0	+1.3	+1.0
David GomezF · transfer from Charlotte	1	8.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	+1.2	+0.5
Amir JonesG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.7	+0.2
Rider PortelaG	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.7	+0.2
Eric JacobsenC	1	3.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+1.7	+0.2
Chase HillF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.6%rank 19	49.9%rank 105	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 152	18.2%rank 269	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.1%rank 103	30.6%rank 68	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.4%rank 264	24.8%rank 124	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +7.4 points a game (they shot 20.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +13.0
Last season's net rating: +10.9
Last season's minutes returning: 37%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.9
Change since preseason: +1.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.3 (rank 39)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.5 (rank 62)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.0 (rank 106)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −9.5 (rank 200)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.6	119.8	89.2	3
2	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.6	120.0	89.5	4
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	120.0	92.8	9
4	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.2	117.8	90.7	10
5	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+24.8	115.0	90.2	11
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.5	94.7	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.2	99.3	24
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.3	112.8	95.5	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	109.7	92.9	38
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+16.4	114.3	97.9	42
11	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	45
12	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.3	99.5	52
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.4	112.6	100.2	63
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.7	114.3	103.6	72
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.3	108.0	100.7	92
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.3	105.0	101.7	113