West Virginia Mountaineers

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Stetson · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Stetson1%99%West Virginia

Projected 86-58 · Game page

Makes the tournament41%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.3

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 19-13

Net rating+16.8Rank 38 of 365 · offence 83, defence 13

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-13 (14 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.3
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field41%
Round of 3225%
Sweet 169%
Elite Eight3%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Niagararank 358	Home	99%	76-49	W 91-46	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Stetsonrank 305	Home	99%	86-58	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	vs Mercerrank 228	Home	97%	83-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 41% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs StetsonA win: 41% · a loss: 39%+2 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs MercerA win: 41% · a loss: 39%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Miles SadlerG	1	28.0	16.0	2.0	9.0	+0.6	+1.3
Finley BizjackG · transfer from Butler	1	24.0	11.0	1.0	1.0	+4.2	+2.6
Brenen LorientF	1	24.0	13.0	5.0	1.0	+6.1	+3.4
Martin SomervilleG · transfer from Florida St	1	22.0	12.0	3.0	2.0	+3.4	+2.1
Javan BuchananF · transfer from Boise St	1	21.0	11.0	6.0	0.0	+5.6	+2.8
Joson SanonG · transfer from St John's	1	20.0	9.0	5.0	0.0	+4.1	+2.2
Mouhamed SyllaC · transfer from Georgia Tech	1	17.0	10.0	7.0	1.0	+4.1	+1.8
Amadou SeiniC	1	16.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.8
Seydou TraoreG · transfer from Utah	1	15.0	5.0	2.0	3.0	+2.3	+1.1
Keonte GreybearG	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.3
Aliou DioumC	1	4.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.2
Jelani McKoyG	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.2	+0.1
Max OlejaszF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.2	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.7%rank 54	51.2%rank 283	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.0%rank 68	20.6%rank 6	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.1%rank 330	27.8%rank 2	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.2%rank 278	22.2%rank 12	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −4.6 points a game (they shot 40.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +13.2
Last season's net rating: +15.5
Last season's minutes returning: 21%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.5
Change since preseason: +3.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 109.7 (rank 83)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 92.9 (rank 13)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.7 (rank 345)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −22.4 (rank 283)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.6	119.8	89.2	3
2	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.6	120.0	89.5	4
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	120.0	92.8	9
4	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.2	117.8	90.7	10
5	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+24.8	115.0	90.2	11
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.5	94.7	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.2	99.3	24
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.3	112.8	95.5	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	109.7	92.9	38
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+16.4	114.3	97.9	42
11	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	45
12	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.3	99.5	52
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.4	112.6	100.2	63
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.7	114.3	103.6	72
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.3	108.0	100.7	92
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.3	105.0	101.7	113