UCF Knights

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Yale · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Yale22%78%UCF

Projected 83-73 · Game page

Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 15-16

Net rating+10.7Rank 72 of 365 · offence 38, defence 115

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-16 (11 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-13
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field8%
Round of 324%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Florida Gulf Coastrank 156	Home	97%	83-59	W 96-95	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Yalerank 106	Home	78%	83-73	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs South Alabamarank 208	Home	93%	87-69	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 8% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs YaleA win: 8% · a loss: 7%+1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs South AlabamaA win: 8% · a loss: 7%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Dior JohnsonG · transfer from Tarleton St	1	35.0	41.0	2.0	2.0	+4.7	+4.3
Lewis WalkerF · transfer from NC A&T	1	34.0	16.0	2.0	2.0	+1.4	+2.1
John BolC	1	31.0	8.0	5.0	2.0	+3.5	+3.1
Carmelo PachecoG	1	26.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	+1.6	+1.7
Arturo DeanG	1	25.0	15.0	6.0	4.0	−0.4	+0.8
Cayden VaskoG · transfer from Wofford	1	16.0	2.0	0.0	4.0	+0.3	+0.7
Isaiah MaloneF · transfer from FGCU	1	14.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	+2.6	+1.2
Riley KugelG	1	13.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+3.9	+1.4
Mister DeanG · transfer from Charleston	1	11.0	7.0	3.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.5
Elijah HulseweC	1	8.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+2.1	+0.6
Jason AsemotaF · transfer from Boston College	1	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.8	+0.4
Churchill AbassF · transfer from LSU N Orleans	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.9	+0.3
Jahda SwannG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.3%rank 74	52.0%rank 327	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.8%rank 47	17.8%rank 321	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	29.3%rank 357	33.0%rank 310	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.6%rank 31	28.2%rank 348	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −4.0 points a game (they shot 36.4%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −6.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +16.6
Last season's net rating: +14.3
Last season's minutes returning: 31%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −4.3
Change since preseason: −5.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.3 (rank 38)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 103.6 (rank 115)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.2 (rank 85)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −3.0 (rank 132)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.6	119.8	89.2	3
2	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.6	120.0	89.5	4
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	120.0	92.8	9
4	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.2	117.8	90.7	10
5	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+24.8	115.0	90.2	11
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.5	94.7	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.2	99.3	24
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.3	112.8	95.5	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	109.7	92.9	38
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+16.4	114.3	97.9	42
11	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	45
12	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.3	99.5	52
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.4	112.6	100.2	63
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.7	114.3	103.6	72
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.3	108.0	100.7	92
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.3	105.0	101.7	113