Tarleton State Texans
Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-16
Net rating−9.5Rank 251 of 365 · offence 284, defence 203
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-16 (12 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 10%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 9%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field9%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Cameronnot Division I | Home | — | — | W 86-60 | |
| Fri 6 Nov9:30 PM ET | at San Diegorank 219 | Away | 31% | 71-78 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | vs UT Dallasnot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at San DiegoA win: 9% · a loss: 9%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Kelly IVG | 1 | 31.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | −0.9 | +0.6 |
| TJ CopeG · transfer from LSU N Orleans | 1 | 30.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | −1.4 | +0.4 |
| Kade DouglasG | 1 | 26.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −3.2 | −0.6 |
| Brett FreemanG | 1 | 26.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Jac ManiF · transfer from Fresno St | 1 | 21.0 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −0.4 | +0.6 |
| Franck EmmouG · transfer from Texas St | 1 | 21.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | −3.2 | −0.4 |
| Trey HarrisG | 1 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Ethan CarterF | 1 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Caeden HutchersonG | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | 0.0 |
| Matyas VrabelF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 153 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 155 | 18.6%rank 133 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 127 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 133 | 25.2%rank 152 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.5
- Last season's net rating
- −4.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 16%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.9
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.4 (rank 284)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.9 (rank 203)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.1 (rank 100)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
United Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Arkansas | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.5 | 103.6 | 106.1 | 150 |
| 2 | UT Arlington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.0 | 101.0 | 107.0 | 197 |
| 3 | Austin Peay | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.1 | 100.9 | 108.0 | 217 |
| 4 | Tarleton State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 98.4 | 107.9 | 251 |
| 5 | Abilene Christian | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 98.9 | 108.5 | 253 |
| 6 | Little Rock | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 99.0 | 109.7 | 266 |
| 7 | Eastern Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 100.7 | 111.6 | 271 |
| 8 | North Alabama | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 98.3 | 109.8 | 278 |
| 9 | West Georgia | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 95.0 | 110.3 | 319 |