North Alabama Lions
Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18
Net rating−11.6Rank 279 of 365 · offence 286, defence 264
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-18 (11 to 21 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 5%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 5%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field5%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: at OklahomaA win: 6% · a loss: 5%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvbagharuG · transfer from Canisius | 2 | 28.5 | 15.0 | 6.5 | 2.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Drey CarterF | 2 | 26.5 | 9.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Caden HarrisG | 2 | 24.0 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 0.5 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Jarron TalleyG | 2 | 22.0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Quan LaxG · transfer from Austin Peay | 2 | 21.5 | 9.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | −2.9 | −0.3 |
| Cortez Graham-HowardG | 2 | 21.0 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | −4.2 | −0.8 |
| Damarien YatesF · transfer from Alabama St | 2 | 15.5 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Ansar OsmanF | 2 | 15.5 | 7.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Jacobe WhittedF · transfer from Tennessee Tech | 2 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.5 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Julius ClarkG · transfer from Gardner-Webb | 2 | 11.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | −0.5 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 52.1%rank 33 | 49.0%rank 63 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.2%rank 310 | 19.1%rank 65 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.9%rank 269 | 30.1%rank 37 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 28.5%rank 23 | 26.9%rank 291 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.1 expected (+0.9)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −0.1 points a game (they shot 32.0%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.3 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −14.8
- Last season's net rating
- −19.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 13%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −5.9
- Change since preseason
- +3.2
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.1 (rank 286)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.8 (rank 264)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.4 (rank 274)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −6.2 (rank 170)
United Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Arkansas | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.4 | 103.5 | 105.9 | 149 |
| 2 | UT Arlington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.0 | 100.9 | 106.9 | 198 |
| 3 | Austin Peay | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.1 | 100.8 | 107.9 | 218 |
| 4 | Tarleton State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 98.3 | 107.8 | 249 |
| 5 | Abilene Christian | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 98.8 | 108.4 | 251 |
| 6 | Little Rock | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 98.8 | 109.7 | 267 |
| 7 | Eastern Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 100.6 | 111.5 | 270 |
| 8 | North Alabama | 2-0 | 0-0 | −11.6 | 98.1 | 109.8 | 279 |
| 9 | West Georgia | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 94.9 | 110.2 | 319 |