Austin Peay Governors

Men's · United Athletic Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Kennesaw St · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Austin Peay26%74%Kennesaw St

Projected 73-81 · Game page

Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-15

Net rating−7.1Rank 217 of 365 · offence 219, defence 205

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-15 (13 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 18%
Wins the conference tournament: 15%
Average seed if in the field: 14.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field15%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Lane Collegenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 109-65
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	at Kennesaw Staterank 153	Away	26%	73-81	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	vs Livingstonenot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 15% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at Kennesaw StateA win: 15% · a loss: 15%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Zyree CollinsPG	1	27.0	18.0	8.0	3.0	−0.3	+0.9
Rashaud MarshallF	1	24.0	16.0	5.0	3.0	+2.0	+1.8
Felipe MinzerPG	1	24.0	4.0	3.0	7.0	−2.2	−0.1
Shamarrie HugieG · transfer from Marshall	1	22.0	12.0	2.0	0.0	−2.0	0.0
Bradley FloydG	1	22.0	11.0	1.0	3.0	−2.1	0.0
Cam RyansG	1	20.0	15.0	2.0	3.0	−2.1	0.0
Chuck Love IIIG · transfer from Loyola Chicago	1	15.0	9.0	8.0	1.0	−3.1	−0.3
PJ SingletonG	1	15.0	7.0	2.0	1.0	−2.0	0.0
Talon ToddPG	1	14.0	13.0	2.0	2.0	−1.9	0.0
Alex DavisF	1	14.0	4.0	5.0	0.0	−1.9	0.0
Birkir EythorssonG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−1.6	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 153	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 155	18.6%rank 133	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 127	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 133	25.2%rank 152	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −7.1
Last season's net rating: 0.0
Last season's minutes returning: 29%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.6
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.9 (rank 219)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 108.0 (rank 205)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.3 (rank 77)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

United Athletic Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Central Arkansas	1-0	0-0	−2.5	103.6	106.1	150
2	UT Arlington	1-0	0-0	−6.0	101.0	107.0	197
3	Austin Peay	1-0	0-0	−7.1	100.9	108.0	217
4	Tarleton State	1-0	0-0	−9.5	98.4	107.9	251
5	Abilene Christian	0-1	0-0	−9.5	98.9	108.5	253
6	Little Rock	0-1	0-0	−10.7	99.0	109.7	266
7	Eastern Kentucky	1-0	0-0	−10.9	100.7	111.6	271
8	North Alabama	1-0	0-0	−11.5	98.3	109.8	278
9	West Georgia	0-1	0-0	−15.3	95.0	110.3	319