Missouri Tigers

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Saint Louis · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Saint Louis34%66%Missouri

Projected 82-78 · Game page

Makes the tournament57%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.4

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 3% · projected 20-13

Net rating+20.1Rank 30 of 365 · offence 15, defence 46

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 20-13 (15 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 2%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 6.4
A 1 seed: 1%

Makes the field57%
Round of 3241%
Sweet 1618%
Elite Eight8%
Final Four3%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Cleveland Staterank 332	Home	99%	90-63	W 111-50	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Saint Louisrank 56	Neutral	66%	82-78	—
Mon 9 Nov8 PM ET	vs SIU Edwardsvillerank 269	Home	99%	88-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 57% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Saint LouisA win: 59% · a loss: 51%+8 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs SIU EdwardsvilleA win: 57% · a loss: 55%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jason Crowe Jr.G	1	30.0	23.0	3.0	2.0	+1.1	+1.7
Kennard Davis Jr.G · transfer from BYU	1	27.0	19.0	4.0	0.0	+4.6	+3.2
Bryson TillerF · transfer from Kansas	1	25.0	10.0	9.0	4.0	+6.1	+3.6
Mark Mitchell Jr.G	1	24.0	11.0	5.0	10.0	+7.6	+4.1
Trent PierceG	1	20.0	11.0	4.0	3.0	+4.8	+2.4
Toni BryantF	1	20.0	15.0	6.0	1.0	+1.3	+1.2
Jamier JonesG · transfer from Providence	1	17.0	13.0	5.0	0.0	+5.5	+2.3
Trent BurnsC	1	13.0	6.0	4.0	1.0	+3.6	+1.3
Cord StansberryG · transfer from W Carolina	1	10.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.7	+0.8
Aaron RoweG	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	+1.6	+0.4
Nicholas RandallF	1	5.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+2.4	+0.4
Jordan CrawfordG · transfer from South Dakota	1	3.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+1.9	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	53.3%rank 8	48.6%rank 29	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	16.9%rank 10	18.4%rank 226	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.6%rank 78	31.7%rank 157	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.4%rank 313	24.4%rank 98	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +9.5 points a game (they shot 12.5%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +16.0
Last season's net rating: +14.5
Last season's minutes returning: 36%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +7.8
Change since preseason: +4.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 118.1 (rank 15)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.0 (rank 46)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.8 (rank 252)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −17.2 (rank 262)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.2	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.1	91.4	7
3	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.4	118.3	94.0	13
4	Vanderbilt	1-0	0-0	+24.1	117.0	93.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.5	97.7	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.7	114.5	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.4	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.3	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.7	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	94