Sam Houston Bearkats
Next: vs Howard Payne · Sat 7 Nov, 3:30 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament14%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-16
Net rating−1.9Rank 147 of 365 · offence 160, defence 149
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-16 (12 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 20%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 14%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field14%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Alabamarank 14 | Away | 2% | 69-93 | L 74-96 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov3:30 PM ET | vs Howard Paynenot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Pepperdinerank 158 | Home | 68% | 80-75 | — |
Rooting guide
- Wed 11 Nov: vs PepperdineA win: 14% · a loss: 15%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacobe ColemanG | 1 | 31.0 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.1 |
| Enel St. BernardF · transfer from Indiana St | 1 | 29.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | +1.8 | +2.0 |
| Aidan McDowellG | 1 | 29.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.3 |
| Justin BeggG | 1 | 27.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | −0.9 | +0.6 |
| Zion PipkinG | 1 | 23.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Riccardo GreppiF · transfer from Wisconsin | 1 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Xavier RobersonG | 1 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.2 |
| Cheikh Sadibou NdiayeF | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.2 |
| Mahliq Guiseppi-KitsonG | 1 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.2 |
| Rylan KellyG | 1 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.2%rank 77 | 50.2%rank 140 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.9%rank 346 | 17.9%rank 305 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.9%rank 62 | 30.8%rank 72 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.7%rank 300 | 23.3%rank 45 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +0.1 points a game (they shot 32.3%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −0.9
- Last season's net rating
- +5.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 24%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.3
- Change since preseason
- −1.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 103.7 (rank 160)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 105.6 (rank 149)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.9 (rank 30)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +24.3 (rank 12)
Conference USA by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.7 | 104.0 | 104.7 | 133 |
| 2 | Liberty | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.7 | 104.3 | 106.0 | 143 |
| 3 | Sam Houston | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 103.7 | 105.6 | 147 |
| 4 | Kennesaw State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 103.5 | 106.3 | 153 |
| 5 | Middle Tennessee | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 102.8 | 106.6 | 166 |
| 6 | New Mexico State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.5 | 102.0 | 106.6 | 180 |
| 7 | Missouri State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.5 | 102.0 | 107.5 | 192 |
| 8 | Florida International | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.7 | 100.5 | 107.2 | 213 |
| 9 | Jacksonville State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 100.3 | 107.9 | 227 |
| 10 | Delaware | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.1 | 100.0 | 111.1 | 274 |