Cincinnati at Dayton
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at UD Arena. Cincinnati our rank 23 · 2-1; Dayton our rank 124 · 1-2.
Who will win Cincinnati vs Dayton?
The model gives Cincinnati a 89% chance to beat Dayton, with a projected score of Cincinnati 80, Dayton 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | |||||
| RileyG · 25 min | 12.9 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 15+ 36% | |
| Collins Jr.G · 28 min | 12.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 10+ 65% | |
| ColvinG · 24 min | 11.4 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 10+ 58% | |
| TejadaF · 22 min | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 10+ 48% | |
| Dayton | |||||
| DerkackG · 32 min | 15.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 15+ 50% | |
| L'EtangF · 25 min | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 59% | |
| FordG · 30 min | 10.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 10+ 51% | |
| JosephG · 28 min | 9.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 10+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without MJ Collins Jr.: Cincinnati 81%Dayton 19%
The white mark is the call with him: Cincinnati 89%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Cincinnati without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | ||||
| MJ Collins Jr. | 3.8 | 81% | −8 | 78–69 |
| Tylen Riley | 3.0 | 83% | −6 | 79–68 |
| Myles Colvin | 2.5 | 84% | −5 | 79–68 |
| Amani Lyles | 2.3 | 85% | −4 | 79–68 |
| Dayton | ||||
| Amal L'Etang | 2.0 | 92% | +3 | 81–66 |
| Landen Joseph | 1.0 | 91% | +2 | 81–66 |
| Jaiun Simon | 0.8 | 90% | +1 | 81–66 |
| Travis Perry | 0.8 | 90% | +1 | 81–66 |
Change is in Cincinnati's win chance, in points. Scores read Cincinnati, then Dayton. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Cincinnati | Dayton | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.7 62nd | 107.8 113th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 91.7 8th | 107.6 164th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 184th | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 255th | 50.7% 164th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 108th | 51.1% 236th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.3% 207th | 19.5% 318th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.8% 118th | 31.0% 235th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 329th | 0.27 153rd |
The widest gap: Cincinnati's defense (8th) against Dayton's offense (113th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Cincinnati 38, Dayton 31
- First-half margin
- Cincinnati by 7.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.0
- Projected second half
- Cincinnati 42, Dayton 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Cincinnati, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 31.7 allowed
- Dayton, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 40.3 scored, 36.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Cincinnati
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MJ Collins Jr.G | 28 | 12.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 2+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Tylen RileyG | 25 | 12.9 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Myles ColvinG | 24 | 11.4 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Tyler TejadaF | 22 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Eric MahaffeyG | 20 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Amani LylesF | 17 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| David IwezeF | 16 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Adlan ElaminF | 14 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Dayton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiden DerkackG | 32 | 15.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Grant RandallF | 31 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Tristian FordG | 30 | 10.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Landen JosephG | 28 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Amal L'EtangF | 25 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Zaide LoweryG | 18 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 27% to play · 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Travis PerryG | 16 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 32% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Jaiun SimonF | 14 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
Missed the last game: Zaide Lowery (19 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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