Who won NJIT vs Dayton?
Final: Dayton 89, NJIT 58. Before tip-off the model gave Dayton a 98% chance to win, with a projected margin of 25.8 points for Dayton. Aiden Derkack scored 21 for Dayton; Matheo Coffi had 12 for NJIT.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Amal L'Etang: NJIT 3%Dayton 97%
The white mark is the call with him: Dayton 98%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Dayton without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dayton | ||||
| Amal L'Etang | 2.0 | 97% | −1 | 54–78 |
| Landen Joseph | 1.0 | 98% | 0 | 54–79 |
| Jaiun Simon | 0.8 | 98% | 0 | 54–79 |
| Travis Perry | 0.8 | 98% | 0 | 54–79 |
Change is in Dayton's win chance, in points. Scores read NJIT, then Dayton. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| NJIT | Dayton | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 91.5 361st | 107.8 113th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 116.4 350th | 107.6 164th |
| Possessions a game | 70.1 261st | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.2% 365th | 50.7% 164th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.6% 264th | 51.1% 236th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.4% 110th | 19.5% 318th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.7% 293rd | 31.0% 235th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 192nd | 0.27 153rd |
The widest gap: Dayton's offense (113th) against NJIT's defense (350th), of 365 teams.
First half
Dayton led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 9.8 points and the total by 7.8.
- At halftime
- NJIT 23, Dayton 47
- Projected halftime score
- NJIT 24, Dayton 38
- First-half margin
- Dayton by 14.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
NJIT
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheo CoffiF | 28 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| John KellyF | 26 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Mario Tatum Jr.G | 23 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Victor VanderstraetenF | 21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| David BoldenG | 20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Stores Jr.G | 18 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Rocco AwadG | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Brendan OliverF | 16 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin DuncanG | 15 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Dayton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiden DerkackG | 29 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 2 |
| Tristian FordG | 28 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Grant RandallF | 27 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Amal L'EtangF | 27 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Zaide LoweryG | 19 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Landen JosephG | 19 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Travis PerryG | 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaiun SimonF | 13 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm ThomasF | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |