Toledo 70, Arkansas St 71
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at First National Bank Arena. Toledo our rank 126 · 1-3; Arkansas St our rank 176 · 1-2.
Who won Toledo vs Arkansas St?
Final: Arkansas State 71, Toledo 70. Before tip-off the model gave Arkansas State a 59% chance to win, with a projected margin of 2.9 points for Arkansas State. Tameron Ferguson scored 20 for Arkansas St; Mynor Strong had 18 for Toledo.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Layne Taylor: Toledo 44%Arkansas St 56%
The white mark is the call with him: Arkansas St 59%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Arkansas St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas St | ||||
| Layne Taylor | 0.9 | 56% | −3 | 70–72 |
| Jordan Pyke | 0.8 | 57% | −2 | 70–72 |
| Toledo | ||||
| Austin Parks | 1.7 | 65% | +6 | 69–74 |
| Angel Montas Jr. | 1.1 | 63% | +4 | 69–73 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga | 1.0 | 63% | +4 | 69–73 |
| Sean Jones | 0.9 | 62% | +3 | 70–73 |
Change is in Arkansas St's win chance, in points. Scores read Toledo, then Arkansas St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Toledo
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Arkansas St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Toledo | Arkansas St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.6 148th | 102.4 210th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.5 122nd | 107.3 157th |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 103rd | 73.5 7th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.6% 309th | 47.7% 342nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 92nd | 48.8% 56th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 15.9% 9th | 17.6% 127th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.7% 297th | 32.3% 148th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 308th | 0.20 361st |
The widest gap: Toledo's defense (122nd) against Arkansas St's offense (210th), of 365 teams.
First half
Arkansas St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 0.6 points and the total by 4.0.
- At halftime
- Toledo 35, Arkansas St 36
- Projected halftime score
- Toledo 33, Arkansas St 34
- First-half margin
- Arkansas St by 1.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Toledo
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mynor StrongG | 36 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Sean JonesG | 33 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jaylan OuwingaF | 30 | 16 | 14 | 1 | 0 |
| Angel Montas Jr.G | 26 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 1 |
| Chris RiddleF | 24 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Austin ParksC | 17 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Will James Jr.G | 16 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylohn AllenG | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rich BarronF | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Arkansas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tameron FergusonG | 32 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
| Layne TaylorG | 30 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Amadou DoumbiaF | 25 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 1 |
| Royal Blue SmithG | 23 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Jordan PykeG | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| Delang MuonF | 19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron McGeeG | 16 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Chaz WatsonG | 16 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Aliou MaigaF | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |