Toledo at Detroit Mercy
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Calihan Hall. Toledo our rank 126 · 1-3; Detroit Mercy our rank 327 · 0-2.
Who will win Toledo vs Detroit Mercy?
The model gives Toledo a 81% chance to beat Detroit Mercy, with a projected score of Toledo 80, Detroit Mercy 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | |||||
| StrongG · 31 min | 14.7 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 15+ 47% | |
| Montas Jr.G · 24 min | 13.4 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 15+ 39% | |
| OuwingaF · 30 min | 12.0 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 62% | |
| JonesG · 30 min | 9.5 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 10+ 44% | |
| Detroit Mercy | |||||
| SprattG · 26 min | 9.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 44% | |
| CarterG · 18 min | 7.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 5+ 68% | |
| MaidenF · 23 min | 6.0 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 5+ 56% | |
| StoneG · 23 min | 5.9 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Austin Parks: Toledo 77%Detroit Mercy 23%
The white mark is the call with him: Toledo 81%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Toledo without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | ||||
| Austin Parks | 1.7 | 77% | −4 | 79–71 |
| Angel Montas Jr. | 1.1 | 78% | −3 | 79–71 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga | 1.0 | 78% | −3 | 79–70 |
| Sean Jones | 0.9 | 79% | −2 | 79–70 |
Change is in Toledo's win chance, in points. Scores read Toledo, then Detroit Mercy. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Toledo 1-3LLWL
- Nov 10L 68-76vs Wright StDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 7W 81-76at MarshallCovered +1.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 5L 61-91at Michigan StDidn't cover +26.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2L 70-71at Arkansas St
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 70.0 and allowing 78.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 3 under
Detroit Mercy 0-2LL
- Nov 10L 55-100at XavierDidn't cover +35.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 6L 32-93at MarquetteDidn't cover +32.5 · Under 154.5
- Last 2
- 0–2, scoring 43.5 and allowing 96.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Toledo | Detroit Mercy | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.6 148th | 96.0 324th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.5 122nd | 112.2 293rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 103rd | 71.9 73rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.6% 309th | 46.1% 359th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 92nd | 51.4% 251st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 15.9% 9th | 18.9% 279th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.7% 297th | 28.3% 345th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 308th | 0.22 339th |
The widest gap: Toledo's defense (122nd) against Detroit Mercy's offense (324th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Toledo 38, Detroit Mercy 32
- First-half margin
- Toledo by 5.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.3
- Projected second half
- Toledo 42, Detroit Mercy 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Toledo, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 4 · 29.5 scored, 39.5 allowed
- Detroit Mercy, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 2 · 19.5 scored, 42.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Toledo
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mynor StrongG | 31 | 14.7 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Sean JonesG | 30 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 52% · 6+ ast 57% | |||||
| Jaylan OuwingaF | 30 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Angel Montas Jr.G | 24 | 13.4 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Austin ParksC | 23 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Will James Jr.G | 20 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Rich BarronF | 16 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Chris RiddleF | 14 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Detroit Mercy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler SprattG | 26 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 58% · 3+ threes 40% | |||||
| Xavier Istomin-MonroeC | 25 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 53% | |||||
| Lance StoneG | 23 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| London MaidenF | 23 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 51% | |||||
| Ayden CarterG | 18 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jordan BriggsG | 15 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Greg Grays Jr.G | 15 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Dante FavorF | 11 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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