Penn at Saint Joseph's
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Michael J. Hagan '85 Arena. Penn our rank 156 · 1-2; Saint Joseph's our rank 120 · 3-0.
Who will win Penn vs Saint Joseph's?
The model gives Saint Joseph's a 73% chance to beat Pennsylvania, with a projected score of Saint Joseph's 76, Penn 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Joseph's | |||||
| MyersG · 33 min | 14.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 15+ 48% | |
| Glover-ToscanoG · 28 min | 14.1 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 15+ 43% | |
| RansonG · 28 min | 14.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 15+ 43% | |
| WillifordG · 34 min | 8.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 10+ 34% | |
| Penn | |||||
| PowerF · 36 min | 17.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 15+ 63% | |
| ZanoniG · 35 min | 13.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 15+ 39% | |
| MohammedG · 27 min | 11.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 10+ 61% | |
| LevineG · 27 min | 7.9 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sean Logan: Penn 33%Saint Joseph's 67%
The white mark is the call with him: Saint Joseph's 73%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Saint Joseph's without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Joseph's | ||||
| Sean Logan | 1.9 | 67% | −6 | 70–75 |
| Jaiden Glover-Toscano | 1.9 | 67% | −6 | 70–75 |
| Khaafiq Myers | 1.5 | 68% | −5 | 70–75 |
| Austin Williford | 1.1 | 69% | −4 | 70–75 |
| Penn | ||||
| TJ Power | 1.6 | 77% | +4 | 68–77 |
| Sir Mohammed | 1.0 | 76% | +3 | 69–76 |
| AJ Levine | 0.8 | 75% | +2 | 69–76 |
Change is in Saint Joseph's's win chance, in points. Scores read Penn, then Saint Joseph's. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Penn 1-2LWL
- Nov 11L 76-81at NavyDidn't cover −8.5 · Over 147.5
- Nov 9W 78-65vs HowardCovered −5.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 5L 70-112at IllinoisDidn't cover +30.5 · Over 172.5
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 74.7 and allowing 86.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 1 under
Saint Joseph's 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 83-80vs South FloridaCovered +6.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 7W 67-57vs LafayetteDidn't cover −16.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 4W 82-73vs Longwood
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 77.3 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Penn | Saint Joseph's | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.0 223rd | 102.0 226th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.0 116th | 100.7 69th |
| Possessions a game | 72.8 26th | 71.6 95th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 258th | 46.7% 356th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.5% 253rd | 49.6% 122nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.6% 38th | 15.7% 7th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 283rd | 28.7% 332nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 232nd | 0.27 115th |
The widest gap: Saint Joseph's's defense (69th) against Penn's offense (223rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Penn 32, Saint Joseph's 36
- First-half margin
- Saint Joseph's by 3.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.0
- Projected second half
- Penn 37, Saint Joseph's 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Penn, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 29.7 scored, 40.0 allowed
- Saint Joseph's, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 36.7 scored, 28.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Penn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ PowerF | 36 | 17.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 47% · 3+ threes 48% | |||||
| Michael ZanoniG | 35 | 13.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Sir MohammedG | 27 | 11.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| AJ LevineG | 27 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 58% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Lucas LuethF | 26 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Augustus GerhartF | 17 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Dalton ScantleburyF | 13 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 4+ reb 48% | |||||
Saint Joseph's
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin WillifordG | 34 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Khaafiq MyersG | 33 | 14.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 52% · 5+ ast 44% | |||||
| Sean LoganF | 29 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Jaiden Glover-ToscanoG | 28 | 14.1 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| BJ RansonG | 28 | 14.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 2+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Logan CareyG | 18 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Keoni SaccoF | 12 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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